瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20251126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to ample spot supply and average downstream demand, liquid caustic soda factory inventories accumulated last week, resulting in high pressure. The slight increase in raw salt prices and the decline in caustic soda and liquid chlorine prices in Shandong led to a decrease in the profits of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises. [2] - This week, the restart of several plants is expected to increase the caustic soda capacity utilization rate. Short - term alumina enterprises show no signs of large - scale production cuts, and their operation is expected to remain stable. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement. The new alumina production capacity in Guangxi is in the procurement stage, but the positive impact is limited under the background of high caustic soda production and inventory in China. The market is bearish on the future chlor - alkali profits, and the basis of the 01 contract remains high. [2] - In terms of valuation, plants above 2200 still have profit margins. Attention should be paid to the support around 2200 and the pressure around 2300. [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2229 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May were 2229 yuan/ton and 2380 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 19 yuan/ton and 15 yuan/ton. [2] - The net position of the top 20 futures contracts for caustic soda was - 19656 hands, a decrease of 2067 hands. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 241509 hands, an increase of 79282 hands. The position of the main caustic soda contract was 150260 hands, an increase of 5169 hands. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 760 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2375 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 146 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 217.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 656 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 100 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 125.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.5 yuan/ton. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2770 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 14th to 20th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. [2] - From November 15th to 21st, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.09% week - on - week to 85.46%. From November 14th to 20th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 0.59% week - on - week to 90.09%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 66.55%. [2] - As of November 20th, SH2601 fluctuated weakly and closed at 2229 yuan/ton. Last week, the loads in North and Northeast China increased, while there were plant overhauls in East, Central, and Southwest China. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 427,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year increase of 80.65%. [2] - From November 14th to 20th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 379 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week. [2]