Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-26 09:21Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - For corn, the US corn harvest is nearly complete, leading to high short - term supply pressure. Global and US soybean supply - demand is relatively loose, suppressing international corn prices. In China, Northeast growers are reluctant to sell, and transportation issues support the bottom price. Consumption increases due to better processing profits and higher operating rates, and the purchase price is strong. In North China and Huanghuai, the new - grain quality varies, and the market is less active. Corn futures prices are generally strong, but chasing up is not recommended [2]. - For corn starch, with the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate rises, increasing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is good, and the inventory has decreased. Starch futures have risen with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2235 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2551 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The number of long positions in the top 20 futures for corn decreased by 6445 hands, while that for corn starch increased by 4310 hands [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 438.25 cents/bushel, up 1 cent. The total position of CBOT corn is 1596361 contracts, up 46302 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn decreased by 11046 contracts to - 92353 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2316.27 yuan/ton, up 7.05 yuan; the factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2590 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 39 yuan, up 35 yuan; the basis of the corn main contract is 81.27 yuan, up 14.05 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn output in the US is 427.11 million tons, up 1.85 million tons; in Brazil, it is 131 million tons, unchanged. The predicted annual corn output in China is 295 million tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports is 62.8 million tons, down 23.8 million tons; in northern ports, it is 134 million tons, up 10 million tons. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 106.9 million tons, down 4 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is 12.78 yuan/ton, down 2.02 yuan; in Hebei, it is 107 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Jilin, it is 37 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.06%, up 0.34%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.48%, up 0.08%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for corn is 10.82%, up 1.23% [2]. Industry News - As of November 23, the US corn harvest progress in 18 states (accounting for 94% of the national corn - sown area) is 96%. As of November 22, the first - season corn planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 59.3% complete [2].