Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The log spot price is running weakly, and the prices of multiple specifications of logs in major ports have generally been lowered by 10 - 30 yuan/cubic meter. The futures price has also declined, and the market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the medium and long term. The supply side has high inventory and high arrival volume, which puts pressure on prices, but the arrival volume has decreased recently, and the supply - side pressure has been improved. The demand side is weak, and the downstream actual demand is less than expected, and the real estate industry has not shown substantial benefits [2][3][5] Summary by Directory 1. Log Industry Data - Spot and Futures - On the spot side, the prices of medium - A radiata pine logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port have declined compared with the previous period. The freight rate of imported coniferous log bulk carriers (New Zealand to China) in late November 2025 was flat compared with the beginning of November. As of November 24, the FOB price range of New Zealand 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine was 112 - 119 US dollars/JAS cubic meter. On the futures side, as of November 25, the log main contract 2601 closed at 764.5 yuan/cubic meter and continued to decline [2] 2. Log Industry Data - Supply - From November 15 - 21, 2025, the total departure and shipment of logs from New Zealand ports were 14 ships with 510,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 7 ships and 220,000 cubic meters. Among them, 9 ships with 320,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a week - on - week increase of 3 ships and 80,000 cubic meters. The arrival volume has decreased since this week, and the seasonal decline in New Zealand's shipments has occurred in the long term. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the expected arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China is 6 ships, a week - on - week decrease of 7 ships (54%); the total arrival volume is about 217,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 201,000 cubic meters (48%). In October 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04% [2] 3. Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of November 21, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 20,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared with last week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.51 million cubic meters, an increase of 80,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 80,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, the same as last week. The high arrival volume has continuously pressured the port log inventory and spot prices. Although the inventory is high, the decrease in arrival volume in mid - November has created initial conditions for inventory reduction. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and high inventory suppresses prices [3] 4. Log Industry Data - Demand - From November 17 - 23, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 64,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 1.83% compared with last week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 35,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.18% compared with last week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 23,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 3.28% compared with last week. The continuous high arrival pressure and the suppression of downstream demand by seasonal factors have increased the sales pressure of traders, and they have generally reduced prices for promotion [3] 5. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Tariffs and Imports/Exports) - China's imported radiata pine shows obvious resource concentration, and the proportion from New Zealand has further increased. The anti - involution policy has had a certain indirect boost. The Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement in May will be beneficial to wood product exports, and the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days in July has been extended. The EU will impose higher anti - dumping duties on Chinese hardwood plywood, and Mexico has made an affirmative preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Chinese cardboard. The General Administration of Customs has decided to abolish the notice on suspending the import of US logs. The freight cost in Russia has increased by up to 50%, and the wood price has increased by 11% - 14% [4] 6. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Trading and Delivery) - Since its listing for one year, the trading and holding volume of log futures and options has steadily increased. The total trading volume of the two is about 7.87 million lots, with a trading amount of about 464 billion yuan, an average daily trading volume of about 32,400 lots, and an average daily holding volume of about 53,400 lots. The LG2507 and LG2509 contracts have completed a total of 1,412 lots of delivery, equivalent to about 127,100 cubic meters of log spot, with a total cargo value of about 104 million yuan [5] 7. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate) - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.02%. As of November 4, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The real estate data shows a downward trend, and the log demand side is still weak [5] 8. Strategy and Suggestions - The 2509 contract declined continuously in the off - season of the second quarter and rose significantly from July to August. The 2511 contract rose first and then fell rapidly before the delivery month. The 2601 contract first oscillated strongly and then declined rapidly and oscillated at a low level. The downstream actual demand is less than expected, and there is no substantial benefit from tariffs and real estate. The near - month contract maintains a low level after entering the delivery month, and the far - month contract may enter the delivery with a discount structure again. The high arrival pressure of logs has been realized, and the supply - side pressure of the current fundamentals has been improved [6]
弘业期货外盘价格下调，到船预期减量
Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-11-26 10:09