铂、钯期货上市首日策略：招期贵金属铂、钯专题

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum is expected to see a price increase in 2025 due to significant supply shortages, with a predicted supply gap of 850,000 ounces. Its price is likely to follow an upward trend [2][35]. - Palladium's outlook in 2025 is bleak, with demand - side pressure. Its price is expected to range between $800 - 1200 per ounce and may experience weak oscillations [3][35]. - For trading strategies, a long - platinum and short - palladium approach is recommended, with a focus on buying platinum at low prices and selling palladium at high prices [4][5][36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Details - Platinum futures (PT) and palladium futures (PD) are listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. Contract months are even - numbered months. The trading unit is 1000 grams per lot, the minimum price change is 0.05 yuan per gram, and the maximum single - order quantity is 1000 lots. The expected main contracts are PT2606 and PD2606 [7]. - Trading hours are from 9:00 - 11:30 am and 13:30 - 15:00 pm, Monday to Friday, with possible adjustments by the exchange [7]. - The minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value, increasing in stages before the delivery month. The daily price limit is ±4% for non - delivery months and ±6% for delivery months [7]. - Contracts use physical delivery with a unit of 1000 grams. The delivery items must have a platinum/palladium content of at least 99.95%. The last trading day is the 10th trading day of the contract month, and the last delivery day is the 3rd trading day after the last trading day [8]. Fundamental Situation Industry Chain Overview - The global platinum and palladium industry chain is characterized by highly concentrated upstream supply, a game of refining and pricing power in the middle, and different downstream demands. South Africa dominates global platinum production, and Russia and South Africa together account for nearly 80% of global palladium production [9]. - China, as the largest consumer, has a low domestic mineral self - sufficiency rate and is highly dependent on imports. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has launched RMB - denominated platinum and palladium futures contracts to enhance pricing influence [9][11]. Upstream - Global platinum and palladium mining supply is geographically concentrated and faces supply pressure. In Q3 2025, major producers faced supply issues, especially in palladium production [15][21]. - Future new supply prospects are not optimistic, with few new or expanded projects. Most potential projects are in the early stages, and it will take at least five years to reach actual production [22]. Middle Stream - China's platinum and palladium supply is highly dependent on imports. In 2025, platinum imports are expected to decline, while palladium imports from Russia have increased significantly [25][27]. - Recycling is becoming an important growth point. China aims to increase the recycling volume of platinum - group metals to 70 tons by 2027, improving the domestic supply structure [26]. Downstream - Platinum demand is more diversified, with about 45% in the automotive catalyst field, 30% in industrial applications, 18% in jewelry processing, and 4% in investment. Palladium demand is highly concentrated, with 83% in automotive catalysts [30]. - In the automotive catalyst field, palladium demand is under downward pressure due to electrification and platinum substitution, while platinum demand is more resilient [32][33]. - In the industrial application field, platinum has a broader demand base, while palladium's demand is relatively limited [33]. - The hydrogen energy field is a growth area for platinum, while palladium has no obvious application [33]. - In the investment and jewelry fields, platinum is attracting more investment attention, while palladium has little demand and growth potential [34]. Price and Strategy Price Trends - Platinum prices are expected to rise due to supply shortages, with a significant supply gap and decreasing surface inventory. The one - month lease rate has soared [2][35]. - Palladium prices are expected to be weak due to demand - side pressure, with a predicted price range of $800 - 1200 per ounce [3][35]. Strategy Recommendations - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy platinum at low prices and sell palladium at high prices [4][36]. - For the arbitrage strategy, a long - platinum and short - palladium approach is recommended based on the fundamental differences between the two metals [5][37][38].