供需趋稳与成本走弱，芳烃价格震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The price of pure benzene is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation in the short term, influenced by both supply improvement and cost decline [2] - The short - term trend of styrene is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with cost weakening but relatively strong price support at the bottom due to marginal tightening of supply and arrivals [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - Price: On November 25, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.16% at 6446 yuan/ton, with a basis of 64 (+0 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.11% at 5411 yuan/ton [2] - Cost: On November 25, Brent crude oil closed at 58.8 dollars/barrel (+0.8 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at 62.7 dollars/barrel (+0.8 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5320 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton) [2] - Inventory: Styrene port inventory was 14.8 tons (-2.7 tons), a 15.2% month - on - month de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 14.7 tons (+3.4 tons), a 30.1% month - on - month stocking [2] - Supply: Styrene's production and capacity utilization fluctuated slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly output of styrene was 34.3 tons (-0.1 tons), and the factory capacity utilization was 69.0% (-0.3%) [2] - Demand: The overall demand of the downstream 3S industries recovered. The capacity utilization of EPS was 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS was 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS was 55.9% (+0.5%) [2] (2) Views - Pure benzene: International oil prices and refined oil prices have fluctuated sharply, affecting the trend of pure benzene. The gasoline crack spread has weakened, reducing the support from gasoline blending. Supply may improve marginally as some US disproportionation units have shut down, potentially reducing China's imports by about 5 tons. Although it is the seasonal stocking period in the fourth quarter, the stocking amplitude may decrease. However, the weakening of crude oil prices is the main factor restricting the market, and the market is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation [2] - Styrene: The supply side of styrene is still a mix of positive and negative factors, but it has maintained a relatively low operating level since October. The impact of previous large - scale plant launches has been digested. Domestic demand has changed little, but previous exports have increased. If some orders continue, it will help improve the supply - demand situation. However, the weakening of cost support has led to an oscillating trend. The supply in December may be affected by potential production cuts at some East China pure benzene plants, and the expected low arrivals at the main ports will keep the basis relatively strong, with spot transactions mainly for rigid demand [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures increased by 0.16% to 6446 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased by 0.70% to 6636 yuan/ton. The basis remained unchanged [5] - Pure benzene futures decreased by 0.44% to 5411 yuan/ton, and East China spot prices decreased by 0.56% to 5290 yuan/ton. International prices also declined [5] - The spread between domestic and CFR pure benzene increased by 2.41%, while the spread between East China and Shandong pure benzene decreased by 37.50% [5] - Brent crude oil increased by 1.34% to 58.8 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 1.26% to 62.7 dollars/barrel, and naphtha prices remained unchanged [5] (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - China's styrene production decreased by 0.43% to 34.3 tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 1.67% to 44.7 tons [6] - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 15.16% to 14.8 tons, and domestic factory inventory decreased by 0.70% to 18.8 tons [6] - National pure benzene port inventory increased by 30.09% to 14.7 tons [6] (3) Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization of styrene decreased by 0.30% to 69.0%, that of caprolactam increased by 2.18% to 88.2%, that of phenol increased by 11.46% to 78.7%, and that of aniline decreased by 4.49% to 75.7% [7] - Among styrene downstream industries, the capacity utilization of EPS increased by 4.54% to 56.3%, VBS increased by 0.60% to 72.4%, and PS increased by 0.50% to 55.9% [7] 3. Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals [8] - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased by 119,000, higher than market expectations [8] - The Iranian Foreign Minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency [8] - The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring, prioritizing oil and nuclear energy resources over the previous focus on renewable energy and energy efficiency [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Charts include those of pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spreads, SM import and domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port and factory inventories, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and capacity utilization of related products [13][18][22]