股指期货：股指涨跌不一，市场存在分歧

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last night, the US released the latest PPI data. The month-on-month growth rate of core PPI was lower than market expectations, strengthening the market's expectation of an interest rate cut. However, before the data release, the federal funds rate futures price showed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December was already higher than 80%, meaning the market had already priced in the rate cut expectation in advance, so the market reaction was relatively muted. In terms of the basis of index futures, it diverged from the performance of the spot market. Today, the discounts of IH and IM, whose spot prices showed relatively weak trends, converged, while the discounts of IF and IC deepened, indicating market divergence and strong long-short gaming characteristics. Attention should be paid to the US PCE price data to be released tonight. If it exceeds market expectations, the market will reprice under the adjustment of the rate cut expectation, and the stock index will face downward pressure. If it is lower than or in line with market expectations, it will further strengthen the expectation of a rate cut in December, providing support for the stock index. However, due to the unresolved Sino-Japanese conflict, which suppresses market risk appetite, it is expected that the stock index will remain volatile [4] Market Review - Today, the stock indices showed mixed performance. Except for the CSI 1000 Index, which closed down, the rest closed up. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 28.801 billion yuan. In the index futures market, IF and IH rose with shrinking volume, IC remained flat, and IM fell with shrinking volume [2] Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [5] Futures Market Observation - The intraday percentage changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 0.42%, 0.14%, 0.00%, and -0.19% respectively. The trading volumes were 97,287 lots, 35,489 lots, 106,970 lots, and 177,550 lots respectively, with month-on-month decreases of 11,646 lots, 8,377 lots, 27,747 lots, and 35,642 lots respectively. The open interests were 259,294 lots, 86,208 lots, 249,088 lots, and 361,227 lots respectively, with month-on-month decreases of 5,280 lots, 2,274 lots, 9,043 lots, and 6,709 lots respectively [6] Spot Market Observation - The percentage changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index were -0.15% and 1.02% respectively. The ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks was 0.47. The trading volume of the two markets was 1,783.346 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 28.801 billion yuan [8] Important Information - In September, the US PPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with rising energy costs driving inflation. The month-on-month growth rate of core PPI was lower than expected. The ADP weekly report showed that the average weekly reduction of private sector jobs in the US in the past four weeks was 13,500, with an intensifying job loss. Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued a document to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption [7]