油脂周度行情观察-20251126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week (November 17 - 21), the oil and fat sector declined, but there were differences among varieties. Palm oil led the decline, while rapeseed oil was relatively resistant to decline [12]. - Palm oil is expected to be weak in the short - term and fluctuate; soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Malaysian palm production increased, with SPPOMA estimating a 4.09% month - on - month increase in production for November 1 - 15, while exports decreased by 14.1% - 20.5%. Indonesia's palm oil production is estimated to increase, with exports up 6% - 7% this year and domestic consumption up 4.5% [4]. - Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy led to a decline in US soybean oil prices, putting pressure on the oil and fat market [4]. - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased, with a 35.67% week - on - week drop in exports as of November 9. China's rapeseed oil imports in October decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [5]. 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - Not elaborated further beyond the market review section Demand - As of November 21, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil at key domestic oil mills was 8000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4597 tons, with domestic demand mainly for essential use. - The domestic soybean oil transaction volume was 10.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73 tons, with relatively stable transactions. - The rapeseed oil pick - up volume at coastal oil mills was 0.83 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31 tons [8]. Inventory - As of November 21, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 66.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39 tons, or 2.13%. - The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 117.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14 tons, or 2.73%, still under pressure. - The rapeseed oil inventory was 37.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.43 tons, or 10.52% [9]. Cost and Profit - As of November 21, the CIF price of Malaysian - produced palm oil was $1027 per ton, the import cost was 8748 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan per ton, and the hedging profit for December shipments was - 122 yuan. There were no new palm oil purchases or cancellations in China from November 15 - 21. - As of November 21, the actual soybean crushing volume at oil mills was 233.44 tons, the operating rate was 64.22%, and the soybean oil production was 44.3536 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.88 tons. Domestic soybean supply was relatively abundant. - As of November 21, the rapeseed oil production at coastal oil mills was 0 tons. Attention should be paid to the crushing situation in December after the arrival of Australian rapeseed [10]. 3. Conclusion - Palm oil: The fundamentals in Malaysia are still weak, with production increasing and exports weak. There is pressure to accumulate inventory in November. In Indonesia, production is expected to increase, and the B40 biodiesel policy supports demand. Domestic palm oil inventory is accumulating, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [12]. - Soybean oil: The domestic soybean supply is abundant, the oil mill operating rate has risen, production has increased, inventory is under pressure, demand is weak, and cost - side support has weakened. There is uncertainty in US biodiesel policy, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12]. - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada. Domestic rapeseed inventory is low, oil mills are shut down, production is 0, and inventory is decreasing. Supply is tight, and Australian rapeseed is arriving in November and December. Although affected by the overall oil and fat market, its own supply - demand structure provides support, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12]. 4. Spot Prices - As of November 21, the spot price of Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil was 8440 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan per ton. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8470 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan per ton. - The spot price of Nantong Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10160 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 130 yuan per ton [14]. 5. Malaysian Palm Oil Data Production - In October 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was 204.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.02%, with significant growth in all regions [16]. Inventory - In October 2025, the inventory was 246 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.44%, at a high level compared to the same period [17]. Export - In October 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports were 169.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.58% [20]. Consumption - In October 2025, domestic consumption in Malaysia was 28.24 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.58%, returning to the normal range [21]. 6. Indian Palm Oil Import - In October 2025, India imported 60.23 tons of palm oil, a month - on - month decrease of 22.66 tons, or 27%, at a low level compared to the same period [24]. 7. Domestic Palm Oil Data Import and Inventory - As of November 21, the domestic commercial inventory of palm oil was 66.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39 tons, or 2.13%. In October, the import volume was 22 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7 tons [27]. Consumption - In October 2025, domestic palm oil consumption was 22.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32 tons, at a low level compared to the same period [30]. Import Profit - As of November 21, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 63 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 27 yuan per ton [33]. 8. Domestic Soybean Oil Data Production and Operating Rate - As of November 21, the oil mill operating rate was 64.22%, and the soybean oil production was 44.3536 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.88 tons, still at a high level compared to the same period [35]. Inventory - As of November 21, the commercial inventory of domestic soybean oil was 117.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14 tons, still under pressure [36]. 9. Domestic Rapeseed Oil Data Production - As of November 21, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the crushing plant operating rate was 0%, and the rapeseed oil production at coastal oil mills was 0 tons [38]. Inventory - As of November 21, the rapeseed oil inventory was 37.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.43 tons, with accelerated inventory reduction [38].