银河期货航运日报-20251126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mainstream shipping companies have successively lowered their spot quotes. The market is pessimistic about the subsequent freight rate levels, and the peak - season expectations have loosened. The EC futures market continued to decline significantly. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of shipping companies [7]. - The freight rate for December still has a downward adjustment expectation. The 12 - contract follows the delivery logic, and its valuation center is expected to shift downward as the spot price drops. The 02 - contract is still anchored to the 12 - contract with a certain discount, but the price difference between December and February is uncertain, depending on whether shipping companies will announce price increases in January [8]. - Geopolitically, the Israeli attack on Gaza makes the peace talks difficult, and it is expected to be difficult to resume shipping before the Spring Festival. The statements of shipping companies and the resumption rhythm after the Spring Festival need to be observed [8]. - In terms of trading strategies, for the single - side trading, due to the divergence in the landing expectations, the market is expected to remain volatile and weak, and it is advisable to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, wait for a callback and then enter the 2 - 4 positive arbitrage in batches at low prices [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - Futures Market Performance: On November 26, 2025, for different EC futures contracts, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 1,622.4, 1,387.4, 1,072.2, 1,252.0, 1,386.1, and 1,055.8 respectively, with daily changes of - 27.6, - 66.1, - 54.2, - 86.0, - 77.9, and - 52.2, and daily change rates of - 1.67%, - 4.55%, - 4.81%, - 6.43%, - 5.32%, and - 4.71% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [5]. - Price Difference Structure: The price differences and their changes between different contracts are presented, such as the price difference between EC12 - EC02 is 235 with a change of 38.5, and the price difference between EC12 - EC04 is 550 with a change of 26.6 [5]. - Container Freight Rates: The SCFIS European Line index was 1639.37, with a week - on - week increase of 20.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.71%. Different container freight rates for various routes showed different trends, such as the SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa (USD/TEU) was 3557, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.76% [5]. - Fuel Costs: The price of WTI crude oil near - month was 57.84 dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.73%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was 61.9 dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.5% [5]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Analysis of Freight Rate Logic: Shipping companies' long - term contracts have improved. As the traditional peak season in December approaches, shipping companies' quotes are gradually released, but the market has different expectations for the implementation. For example, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote for Week 50 was 2200 dollars, 300 dollars lower than last week, which was lower than market expectations [8]. - Supply and Demand Fundamentals: From November to December, the shipping volume is expected to gradually improve. In terms of supply, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in November/December 2025 was 26.23/27.22 million TEU, and the average weekly capacity in January 2026 was 30.03 million TEU [8]. - Trading Strategies: Single - side trading should wait and see due to the uncertain market. For arbitrage, wait for a callback and then enter the 2 - 4 positive arbitrage in batches at low prices [8][9]. Industry News - Maersk's spokesperson claimed that the Suez Canal Authority's statement about resuming navigation in December was false [9]. - Maersk has not determined when to resume some flights through the Suez Canal [10]. - Ukraine has basically agreed to the peace agreement proposed by the United States, but some terms still need to be discussed [10]. Relevant Attachments There are multiple figures showing the trends of various indices and container freight rates, such as the SCFIS European Line index, SCFIS US West Line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes from Shanghai to various destinations [12][13][15]