铂期货上市交易策略分析

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the NYMEX platinum price showed a trend of "rapid spike - oscillatory correction - another spike - oscillatory adjustment". Despite a recent adjustment, platinum futures remain strong due to structural supply - demand shortages, strengthened hydrogen industry expectations, and the boost of the US dollar's financial attributes [3]. - The global platinum market is expected to remain in a shortage pattern in 2025. Supply is restricted by problems in South African mines and geopolitical uncertainties in Russia, while demand shows some resilience with a slowdown in overall growth but a promising outlook in the hydrogen energy sector. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips [8][12]. - Considering the supply - demand fundamentals and the potential for loose liquidity, platinum prices are expected to remain firm [13]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - side Growth Constrained - Global primary platinum production is highly concentrated, with South Africa accounting for about 71% of the total. South African mines face long - term structural problems such as power shortages and infrastructure aging, and in 2025, the first - quarter production decreased by 4% year - on - year due to natural disasters. Russian supply is uncertain due to geopolitical factors. Mineral supply, which accounts for 75% of total platinum supply, is insufficient, leading to an overall decline in platinum supply [4]. - Platinum recycling sources mainly include waste automotive catalytic converters and jewelry. In 2025, China's policies are expected to accelerate automotive recycling, and jewelry consumption demand has rebounded. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) expects recycling supply to increase by 7% year - on - year, but it is still insufficient to make up for the mineral supply gap. In 2025, total platinum supply is expected to decline by 2% to 222 tons [5]. Demand Growth Slowdown - In 2025, global total platinum demand is expected to decline by 6% year - on - year to 243 tons. Although demand in the jewelry and investment fields has increased, global automobile production is expected to be adjusted downward due to tariff impacts, and new capacity in the glass industry has slowed, dragging down industrial demand. However, the hydrogen energy sector shows explosive growth potential [6]. - In China, the automotive sector accounts for about 60% of platinum demand. In 2025, the overdraft effect of demand is emerging, and inventory pressure may affect platinum demand in the automotive sector. Jewelry demand in China is expected to increase by 44%, and investment demand for platinum bars and coins has increased by 47% year - on - year, reaching a four - year high [6][7]. Platinum Supply - Demand Remains in Shortage - In 2025, the global platinum market is expected to continue the shortage pattern, with a shortage of 22 tons. Total supply is expected to decline by 2% to 222 tons, the lowest in five years, and mineral supply will decrease by 5% to 171 tons, also a five - year low. Global above - ground platinum inventory and exchange inventory are at historical lows, increasing price elasticity [8]. Post - listing Trading Strategy - The correlation between the Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price and the NYMEX platinum futures price is as high as 0.95, indicating strong price linkage at home and abroad. The correlation between platinum and COMEX gold futures prices is relatively low, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.6 in the past five years, mainly because platinum's price is more influenced by automotive and industrial demand [12]. - Looking ahead, South Africa may face power supply and extreme weather risks in the fourth quarter. Platinum demand is resilient, with jewelry and investment demand expanding and the hydrogen energy industry being an important growth point. Given the continuous supply - demand gap and low inventory, it is recommended to go long on platinum on dips [12]. - Currently, precious metal prices are in a phased adjustment. US potential trade restrictions on platinum keep the spot market supply tight, and with the possibility of interest rate cuts, platinum prices are expected to remain firm [13].