粕类日报：国际市场整体偏强，价格震荡运行-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market is generally strong, with prices fluctuating. The domestic soybean meal shows a rising trend, while rapeseed meal continues to rebound. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly expands, and the monthly spreads of both contracts decline [3]. - The current international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The US market is relatively strong due to increased exports, but the Brazilian new - crop soybean may face price pressure in the medium term [4]. - The domestic spot market is in a state of loose supply - demand. The oil mill's开机率 increases, the market supply is sufficient, and the inventory remains high. The market demand is increasing, but there is still a potential shortage in the long - term supply [5]. - The impact of macro factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [6]. - In the short term, the US soybean futures may fluctuate at a high level. The South American market has price support, and the international soybean market supply - demand is relatively stable. The domestic soybean meal may face price pressure in the medium - long term, and the rapeseed meal supply may still face pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Futures and Spot Basis: For soybean meal, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 3015, 2826, and 2938 respectively, with price increases of 2, 6, and 7. The spot basis in various regions shows a downward trend. For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 2439, 2387, and 2451 respectively, with price increases of 8, 2, and 1. The spot basis in some regions also decreases [3]. - Monthly Spreads: For soybean meal, the 15 - spread is 189 (down 4 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is - 112 (down 1), and the 91 - spread is - 77 (up 5). For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread is 52 (up 6), the 59 - spread is - 64 (up 1), and the 91 - spread is 12 (down 7) [3]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 01 - spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 576 (down from yesterday), and the 09 - spread is 487 (up from yesterday). The spot difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 468 (down 13), between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 370 (down 20), and between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 718 (down 3) [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals - International Market: The US soybean balance sheet can support the price, but the upside is limited. South American supply - side influence increases. Brazil's new - crop sowing progresses fast, with a generally positive supply outlook. Argentina's old - crop soybean has increased processing and exports [4]. - Domestic Market: As of November 21, the actual soybean processing volume of oil mills is 2.3344 million tons, the开机率 is 64.22%, the soybean inventory is 7.1499 million tons (down 4.38% from last week, up 39.91% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory is 1.1515 million tons (up 15.97% from last week, up 49.47% year - on - year). The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply pressure persists [5]. 3.3 Macro Factors - The US government ends the shutdown, and Sino - US negotiations release positive signals, which boost the US soybean futures. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China improves the export prospects. However, the impact of macro factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean futures may fluctuate at a high level without significant improvement in exports. The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the price. The international soybean market supply - demand is relatively stable, and price changes are expected to be limited. The domestic soybean meal market has supply - side pressure, and the rapeseed meal supply may face challenges [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - Side: Place a small number of long positions [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8]. 3.6 Soybean Processing Profits - The processing profits of Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date. For example, the February shipment has a spot processing profit of 52.57 and a change of - 2.52 compared to yesterday [9].