国投期货农产品日报-20251126

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Hog: ★★★ [1] - Egg: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The agricultural product market shows complex trends with different factors influencing each product. Some products have clear trends and investment opportunities, while others lack short - term drivers and are recommended for a wait - and - see approach [2][3][6] - The market is affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, trade policies, and international price fluctuations [3][4][6] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybean futures are reducing positions and prices are回调. The new crop market features high - quality, high - price. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is fluctuating. Short - term focus is on the domestic spot market and policies, and medium - term on South American weather [2] - Imported soybeans are affected by US exports in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [2][4] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient and the crushing volume has increased. The inventory of soybean meal has reached a high level, and the supply is loose [3] - South American new - season soybeans are affected by La Nina, with slow planting progress. Wait for the new Sino - US trade agreement and look for buying opportunities after the回调 [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. The domestic palm oil basis has strengthened slightly, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has turned positive. Palm oil may see short - covering [4] - Soybean oil is affected by US soybean prices, with short - term focus on US exports and medium - term on South American weather [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures prices have risen slightly, mainly following the external market. Canadian rapeseed has high crushing demand but weak export demand. The import of Australian rapeseed has profit potential. The short - term driver for the rapeseed sector is not obvious, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [6] Corn - Corn futures have stopped rising. North - China corn prices are strong, while South - China corn has quality issues. The price difference between North and South is widening. The downstream inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [7] Hog - The number of breeding sows has decreased, which supports the long - term futures price. The spot price is weak. With the approaching of the winter demand season, there is also pressure from the second - fattening hog supply. The hog price may form a double - bottom pattern [8] Egg - Egg futures are increasing positions, and the far - month contracts are rising. The supply of new - laying hens is expected to decrease, and the number of old hens to be culled is large. The short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of the spot - futures price difference [9]