国投期货软商品日报-20251126

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The prices of various soft commodities in the futures market show different trends, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their respective fundamentals [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures slightly declined today, and the spot sales basis of cotton was stable. New cotton cost provides support but also limits price increase, with short - term range - bound trading likely. Although new cotton production increased significantly this year, commercial inventory is not high and the sales progress is fast, which supports the futures price. As of November 20, the cumulative national processed lint cotton was 4.631 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.812 million tons and an increase of 1.512 million tons compared to the four - year average. As of November 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2043 million tons. The cotton yarn market had weak trading, with fewer new orders for spinning mills, a decline in the operating rate, and weavers making mainly rigid - demand purchases. High - count yarn prices were firm and trading was good. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased this year, the sugar - making ratio increased, compensating for the loss in sugar production, and sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand have gradually started sugarcane crushing, and due to good weather conditions, sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar futures were weak. In October, China's syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were relatively large, and there is still some pressure on the supply side. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. In Guangxi, rainfall in the third quarter was good, and the sugarcane vegetation index increased year - on - year. The sugar production in Guangxi for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be relatively good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Apple futures prices continued to rise. In the spot market, in Shandong, small and medium - sized apples were mainly traded, and other varieties had less trading. In the Northwest region, merchants packaged their own inventory for market supply, and the mainstream prices remained stable. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory for the new season was 7.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. This year, the quality of apples is poor, but the purchase price is high, and both traders and fruit farmers are reluctant to sell, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The future de - stocking situation is the main trading point. Overall, there is more divergence between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU) and 20 - rubber (NR) first declined and then rose, and the futures price of butadiene rubber (BR) increased. The domestic natural rubber price was stable with a slight decline, and the synthetic rubber spot price was stable. The port price of butadiene in the external market continued to rise, and the prices in the Thai raw material market varied. Globally, natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China is gradually entering the non - production season. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to rise, with some plants restarting and others starting or continuing maintenance. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants also continued to rise. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate declined due to some tire enterprises' maintenance, and the finished - product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises continued to increase. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 468,900 tons, with significant increases in both bonded and general trade inventories. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber increased to 17,000 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene increased significantly to 39,800 tons. Overall, demand continues to weaken, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, spot inventory is rising, cost support is strengthening, and market sentiment has improved. A rebound strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR and BR [6] Pulp - Pulp futures slightly declined today. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,300 yuan per ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,170 yuan per ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,400 yuan per ton. As of November 20, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%, and a significant inventory increase for two consecutive weeks. The port inventory in China has been continuously increasing, the supply is still relatively loose, the demand for pulp remains weak, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. After the previous increase, the basis of pulp has significantly narrowed. Due to the overall weak fundamentals, the price has continuously declined after the basis convergence. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - Timber futures prices fluctuated. In the spot market, the mainstream prices remained stable. The external market prices are still high, and the domestic spot prices are weak, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level. The port outbound volume is maintained above 60,000 cubic meters, and demand supports the price. The total timber inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Overall, the low inventory provides some support for the price. It is recommended to wait and see [8]