震荡下行：PP日报-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to supply surplus and weakened cost support, PP is expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 31% [1][4] - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration is actively promoting a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky is open to peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled units has decreased recently. As the downstream enters the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders for plastic weaving is limited, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,258 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,332 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,265 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.42%. The open interest decreased by 19,187 lots to 586,572 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions partially declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,150 - 6,480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand side: As of the week of November 21, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Petrochemical early inventory on Wednesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw material end - crude oil: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton week - on - week [4]