中原期货晨会纪要-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global capital market is undergoing a systematic recovery, driven by factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, moderating core inflation, and AI technological breakthroughs [21]. - In the commodity market, different varieties show diverse trends. For example, precious metals are rising due to factors like the Fed's dovish stance and geopolitical uncertainties, while oil prices are under pressure due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and concerns about the US economic data [8]. - In the stock market, the three major indices rebounded on November 25, but the short - term rebound may be limited, and investors should maintain a balanced allocation and consider appropriate option strategies [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Stock Indices: On November 26, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 1.43% to 47112.45, the Nasdaq Index rose 0.671% to 23025.59, the S&P 500 rose 0.906% to 6765.88, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.692% to 25894.55 [2]. - Currencies: The SHIBOR overnight rate remained unchanged at 1.32, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 99.82, and the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.09 [2]. - Commodities: COMEX gold rose 0.76% to 4165.20, COMEX silver rose 1.163% to 51.75, while NYMEX crude oil fell 1.325% to 58.11, and ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.323% to 61.90. Most domestic commodities also showed different degrees of rise or fall [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The China - US heads - of - state phone call initiated by the US is of great significance for the stable development of China - US relations [7]. - The Chinese government will hold a policy briefing to introduce measures to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption [7]. - Trump's team has made great progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and relevant parties are working towards finalizing a peace plan [7]. - From January to October, China's full - industry foreign direct investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and the newly - signed contract value of foreign contracted projects increased by 18.6% year - on - year [7]. - In September, US PPI and core PPI accelerated month - on - month, while retail sales growth slowed down [8]. - Oil prices fell due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and concerns about the US economic data, while precious metals rose due to the Fed's dovish stance and geopolitical uncertainties [8]. - The RMB against the US dollar rose, breaking through the 7.09 mark [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: On November 25, peanut futures rose 0.53% to 7936 yuan/ton. The short - term may maintain a volatile and slightly strong pattern, and investors are advised to wait and see [11]. - Sugar: On November 25, sugar futures rose 0.52% to 5387 yuan/ton. With increasing supply pressure, a bearish view is recommended [11]. - Corn: On November 25, corn futures rose 1.63% to 2242 yuan/ton. The short - term is expected to be strong, and investors are advised to wait and see [11]. - Pigs: The national pig price was slightly weak. With the increase in the spread between standard and fat pigs, there is some pressure - holding sentiment in the market [11]. - Eggs: The national egg spot price was stable. With the improvement of supply - demand contradiction, the futures market is expected to stop falling and stabilize [11][12]. - Cotton: On November 25, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose 0.66% to 13645 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern between 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the 2601 contract is expected to continue to run weakly [12]. - Urea: The domestic urea market is slightly weak. The short - term may continue to fluctuate weakly, and the UR2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [12]. - Coking Coal: The short - term prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly [12]. - Pulp: On November 25, pulp futures fell 0.27% to 5212 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price may continue to be under pressure [12][13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Copper and aluminum prices are expected to remain high, but attention should be paid to macro risks [15]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation of alumina is in an oversupply pattern. The 2601 contract is running at a low level, and attention should be paid to the interference of factors such as bauxite [16]. - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: They are expected to fluctuate within a range, with rebar at 3000 - 3150 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3350 yuan [17]. - Ferrous Alloys: At the end of the year, the supply and demand of ferrous alloys are weak, and the price follows the weak trend of the black series. There is no driving force for further decline, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: On November 25, the lithium carbonate futures contract rose 4.47% to 95400 yuan/ton. The short - term should pay attention to the performance at the 95000 - yuan pressure level [20]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: The three major indices stopped falling and rebounded on November 25. The short - term rebound may be limited, and investors should maintain a balanced allocation and consider appropriate option strategies [22]. - Options: On November 25, the three major A - share indices strengthened. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can consider selling wide - straddle strategies after a significant increase in volatility [23][24].