山金期货贵金属策略报告-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes short - term risk aversion due to geopolitical risks and the existence of interest - rate cut expectations, and the influence of factors in terms of risk - aversion, monetary, and commodity attributes [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently been reduced again, and the iShare silver ETF has slightly increased its position. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D all showed increases. For example, Comex gold rose 0.76% from the previous day and 2.40% from the previous week [2]. - Position and Inventory: Comex gold positions remained unchanged compared to the previous week, while Shanghai gold futures positions increased by 127.87%. Some inventories decreased, such as Comex gold inventory which decreased by 1.08% compared to the previous week [2]. - Strategy: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. Silver - Price Performance: International prices of Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices of Shanghai silver futures and silver T + D all increased. For instance, Comex silver rose 1.16% from the previous day and 2.39% from the previous week [5]. - Position and Inventory: Comex silver positions remained unchanged compared to the previous week, while Shanghai silver futures positions increased by 13.23%. Some inventories decreased, like the explicit inventory which decreased by 0.74% compared to the previous week [5]. - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5]. Fundamental Key Data - Monetary Attributes: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 0.00%. The ten - year US Treasury real yield, dollar index, and other indicators showed certain changes [7]. - Inflation: US inflation indicators such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index showed different degrees of changes compared to the previous period [9]. - Economic Growth: US economic growth indicators including GDP, unemployment rate, and non - farm payrolls had corresponding changes [9]. - Other Aspects: There were also changes in data related to the labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys. In addition, data on central bank gold reserves, risk - aversion attributes, and commodity attributes were also presented [9][10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December 2025 to the range of 350 - 375 basis points is 82.9%. The probability distribution of interest - rate ranges in subsequent meetings also shows different trends [11].