银河期货白糖日报-20251126

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2][3] - Report Date: November 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [5] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price at 5,324, down 12 (-0.22%), volume 2,135 (down 1,537), open interest 19,534 (up 659) [6] - SR01: Closing price at 5,379, down 8 (-0.15%), volume 153,464 (up 18,087), open interest 394,080 (down 12,249) [6] - SR05: Closing price at 5,309, down 16 (-0.30%), volume 41,612 (up 12,801), open interest 190,753 (up 11,365) [6] Spot Market - Sugar prices in different regions: Liuzhou at 5,615, Kunming at 5,480 (down 20), Wuhan at 5,960, Nanning at 0, Bayuquan at 6,015, Rizhao at 5,800, Xi'an at 6,100 [6] - Basis: Liuzhou at 236, Kunming at 101, Wuhan at 581, Bayuquan at 636, Rizhao at 421, Xi'an at 721 [6] Spread Analysis - SR05 - SR01: Spread at -70, down 8; SR09 - SR05: Spread at 15, up 4; SR09 - SR01: Spread at -55, down 4 [6] Import Profit Analysis - Brazil import: ICE主力 at 14.77, premium at (0.19), freight at 37.75, in - quota price at 4,059, out - of - quota price at 5,158, spread with Liuzhou at 457, with Rizhao at 642, with futures at 221 [6] - Thailand import: ICE主力 at 14.77, premium at 0.89, freight at 18.00, in - quota price at 4,108, out - of - quota price at 5,221, spread with Liuzhou at 394, with Rizhao at 579, with futures at 158 [6] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - Brazil: Expected 11 - month first - half sugarcane crushing at 18.85 million tons (down 14.9% yoy), sugar production at 1.075 million tons (up 18.9% yoy), and sugar - making ratio at 41.94% [8] - Yunnan: 7 sugar mills have started crushing in 2025/26 season (3 more than last year), planned capacity at 24,100 tons/day (up 13,100 tons/day), 4 more mills to start soon [9] - New season starts: Menglian Changyu Sugar Industry's new season begins on November 23 [10] Logical Analysis - International: Brazil's sugar production may be lower than expected, supply pressure eases, international sugar prices show signs of bottoming, short - term slightly bullish [11] - Domestic: New season production increases, but import restrictions and high production costs support prices, current price may not fall much further [11] Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider short - term long positions at low prices [12] - Arbitrage: Long January, short May [13] - Options: Sell put options at low levels [13] Group 4: Related Charts - Charts include Guangxi and Yunnan inventory, sales - to - production ratio, Liuzhou sugar price, price spreads, and basis for different contract months [14][18][21][27][28][31]