银河期货煤炭日报-20251126

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Coal Daily, November 26, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] -从业资格号: F3068848 [5] - Investment consulting qualification certificate number: Z0017786 [5] - Contact information: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] Group 2: Market Review - On November 26, port market coal prices were under pressure, with price ranges of various calorific value coal types generally shifting downward, weak trading volume, and a cold market atmosphere. For example, the 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 825 - 830 yuan/ton [2] - Different regions had different price ranges for non - electric enterprise coal, such as Inner Mongolia, Yulin, and Shanxi [2] Group 3: Important News - From January to October this year, national railways cumulatively transported 33.78 billion tons of goods, a year - on - year increase of 3%, reaching a record high for the same period. The average daily loading was 186,000 cars, a year - on - year increase of 4% [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine start - up rates in the main coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 25, the coal mine start - up rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output of Ordos and Yulin exceeded 4 million tons, and domestic supply tended to be loose [4] - Import: China's procurement demand weakened, while international coal prices continued to rise [4] - Demand: This week's demand was mediocre. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement was average, and India's procurement demand still showed no improvement. Power plant load increased, and inventories were relatively sufficient. Power plants mostly preferred long - term contract supplies, with low enthusiasm for market coal procurement. Port market prices fell slightly, and terminal demand boost was poor, resulting in limited market transaction activity [4] - Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The average daily transport volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved cars by the Huhhot Railway Bureau was around 30 trains. Port inventory was generally stable, and as of November 26, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 25.12 million tons, returning to the high level of the same period. Coastal power plant daily consumption was low, but inventories continued to decline. Inland power plant inventories were at a moderate level [4] - Outlook: In late November, coal production in the main producing areas was low. The coal start - up rates in Ordos and Yulin were stable, with a daily output of around 4.2 million tons, and supply tightened. Power plant inventories continued to decline, import profits emerged, coastal power plant procurement weakened, port inflow was high and outflow was low, and port inventory increased rapidly. The national temperature was relatively high, power plant daily consumption was low, and coal consumption was average, but coastal power plant inventories were lower than the same period, and they continued to make necessary purchases. Port FOB prices declined weakly. After the safety supervision at the mine pit was lifted, the coal mine start - up rate increased, production increased, and the demand for chemical coal was okay. Pit - mouth prices declined weakly. It is expected that coal prices will be weak in the short term [4] Group 5: Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts showing the inventory and daily consumption of different types of ports and power plants from 2022 to 2025, including national ports, Bohai Rim ports, downstream ports, etc. [7][8]