银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251126

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. It is expected that the speed of capacity reduction will be relatively gentle in the short term. Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per catty, the January main contract has given a certain premium. However, considering that the downward space is relatively limited as the pre - holiday stocking approaches, it is likely to fluctuate within a range in the future [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main producing areas is 2.9 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.12 yuan per catty, both remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The national mainstream price remains stable, and the egg prices in major markets in Beijing remain stable. The egg prices in Northeast China, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Anhui are generally stable [4]. - In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in sample enterprises in October was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production from November 2025 to February 2026 is 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - In the week of November 21, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 20.21 million, an increase of 3.8% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 492 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - As of the week of November 21, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7,472 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous week [5]. - As of November 13, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.15 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week. On November 6, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 6.1 yuan per bird, a decrease of 1.19 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - As of the week of November 21, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [6]. - Today, the price of culled chickens in the whole country has increased, and the average price in the main producing areas is 3.81 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous trading day [6]. 2. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. It is expected that the speed of capacity reduction will be relatively gentle in the short term. The January main contract has given a certain premium, and considering the approaching pre - holiday stocking, the downward space is relatively limited, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range in the future [7]. 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Consider building long positions in the January contract on dips [8]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the spot price of eggs in the main producing areas, the spot price of eggs in the main selling areas, the price of chicken seedlings, the price of culled chickens, the feed cost of single - catty eggs, the inventory of laying hens in production and future inventory projections, various price spreads, and profit expectations [11][15][19]