【冠通期货研究报告】库存连续数周去化

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has more low - price transactions, demand has improved, and the futures price has rebounded. However, the rebound is limited due to sufficient upstream supply [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The futures market opened low and moved high, showing strength during the day. The spot price continued to weaken, but low - price transactions in the market were good, and some factories stopped selling [1][2][4] - The daily production of urea is significantly higher than the historical average. Before the seasonal shutdown of gas - fired plants, the daily production of upstream plants will fluctuate above 190,000 tons. The upward trend of coal cost has slowed down, and downstream demand needs to be verified [1] - The operating load of compound fertilizer factories has increased. After the end of environmental inspections last week, enterprise equipment gradually resumed production, and some equipment in Northeast China started operation. Some equipment's operating load has reached a relatively high level [1] - Due to increased downstream terminal purchasing speed and reserve demand, inventories have been decreasing for several weeks, with a 5.1% week - on - week decrease this week [1][8] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,630 yuan/ton, closed at 1,654 yuan/ton, up 1.29%. The trading volume was 229,335 lots (- 4,980 lots). Among the top 20 positions, the long position decreased by 5,923 lots and the short position increased by 1,272 lots [2] - Spot: The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,570 to 1,620 yuan/ton. Low - end prices have better transactions, while high - end prices have a general trading atmosphere [1][4] - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation declined, while the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at - 24 yuan/ton (- 34 yuan/ton) [7] 3. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1% [8] - Supply: On November 26, 2025, the national daily urea production was 205,900 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 84.85% [9] - Pre - sale Orders: As of November 28, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.65 days, a decrease of 0.47 days from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 6.6% [10]