【冠通期货研究报告】塑料日报：震荡下行-20251126

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and with the weakening cost support, it is expected that plastics will continue to show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On November 26, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The new capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) were recently put into production, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly [1][4]. - As of the week of November 21, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% month - on - month. The agricultural film is still in the peak season with stable orders, but the peak season is less than expected. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline in the future [1][4]. - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. The Wednesday petrochemical early inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year [1][4]. - The cost of raw material oil decreased. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration tried to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky showed an open attitude towards peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.31% to close at 6,707 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 9,240 lots to 497,599 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with the price change ranging from - 80 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,620 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3].