Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil investment rating: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil investment rating: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil investment rating: ☆☆☆ [1] - Asphalt investment rating: ★★★ [1] Group 2: Core Views - International oil prices declined overnight, and the SC01 contract slightly fell during the day. Positive progress in the peace plan negotiation between the US and Russia and the potential meeting between the Ukrainian and US presidents led to a decline in geopolitical risks and oil prices. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward driving force for oil prices remains [2]. - Fuel oil prices continued to decline due to the drag from the cost side, with limited fundamental contradictions. For high-sulfur fuel oil, the geopolitical premium may decline due to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, but there is a risk of conflict escalation during the negotiation period, and short-term supply fluctuations may support prices. The high-sulfur cracking spread and monthly spread are expected to recover, but the medium-term loose pattern remains unchanged. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in the Asia-Pacific region is still abundant, and the price is expected to weaken as the gasoline and diesel spread narrows [3]. - The shipment volume in East and South China has improved significantly recently. The inventory of sample refineries and traders has decreased month-on-month, and the de - stocking of overall commercial inventory has accelerated. The production plan for December has declined year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will follow the seasonal decline rule. Refineries have a strong willingness to support prices, and the spot price has found support at 3000 yuan/ton, but BU still faces pressure in the medium and long term [4]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, and the SC01 contract had a slight intraday decline. Positive progress in the US - Russia peace plan negotiation and the potential meeting between the Ukrainian and US presidents led to a decline in geopolitical risks and oil prices. There are expectations of greater inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward driving force for oil prices remains. The near - term risk lies in whether Russia can accept the latest version of the peace plan [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices continued to decline due to cost - side drag, with limited fundamental contradictions. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the geopolitical premium may decline due to the peace talks, but there is a risk of conflict escalation during the negotiation period, and short - term supply fluctuations may support prices. The high - sulfur cracking spread and monthly spread are expected to recover, but the medium - term loose pattern remains unchanged. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply in the Asia - Pacific region is still abundant, and as the gasoline and diesel spread narrows due to the recovery of refinery operations, the low - sulfur price is expected to follow the downward trend [3]. Asphalt - The shipment volume in East and South China has improved recently. The inventory of sample refineries and traders has decreased month - on - month, and the de - stocking of overall commercial inventory has accelerated. The December production plan has declined year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will decline seasonally. Refineries have a strong willingness to support prices, and the spot price has found support at 3000 yuan/ton, but BU still faces pressure in the medium and long term [4]
国投期货能源日报-20251126
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-26 11:29