Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking coal: ★★★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain range-bound with limited upside due to weak demand, while the iron ore market is expected to be volatile with a generally loose supply-demand situation. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to be weak and volatile, and the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are also expected to be volatile with some uncertainties [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is currently oscillating. Thread demand has improved, production has increased, and inventory has decreased. Hot-rolled coil demand has recovered, production has slightly increased, and inventory has started to decline. However, downstream demand is weak, and steel mills are still in a loss-making state. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and other places. The real estate investment decline has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Domestic demand remains weak, and steel exports have declined from their highs. The spot price is relatively firm, and the futures market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis. However, weak demand restricts the upside space, and the overall market is expected to remain range-bound. Attention should be paid to policy changes in the real estate sector [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is currently oscillating. The global shipment volume has decreased month-on-month but is still stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded to a high for the year, and port inventories are expected to return to the inventory replenishment trend this week. The steel demand is at a low level, and it is currently in the off-season. Steel mills are not profitable, and pig iron production is still in a seasonal decline trend, although the decline rate has slowed down. Attention should be paid to whether there will be favorable policies at the macro level. The iron ore fundamentals are relatively loose, but there are still short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore varieties. The market is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The coke market is currently oscillating. Coking profits are average, and daily production has continued to decline slightly. Coke inventory has increased slightly, and downstream demand is limited. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream pig iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and production-side inventory has decreased slightly. The safety inspection in the main coal-producing areas has considered the seasonal decline in pig iron production, and the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. However, the profit level of steel mills is average, and there is a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures market is at a premium, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is currently weak and oscillating. Coking coal production has decreased slightly, and spot auction transactions are average, with prices mainly falling. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream pig iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and production-side inventory has decreased slightly. The safety inspection in the main coal-producing areas has considered the seasonal decline in pig iron production, and the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. However, the profit level of steel mills is average, and there is a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures market is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese market is currently oscillating. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, which is expected to lead to a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. On the demand side, pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. Silicon manganese weekly production has decreased slightly, but production is still at a relatively high level, and inventory is slowly increasing. The prices of spot manganese ore have fluctuated, with high-grade oxidized ore slightly increasing and semi-carbonate ore slightly decreasing. Manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The expected bottom support has shifted downward [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon market is currently oscillating. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, which is expected to lead to a decline in power costs and Lan charcoal prices. On the demand side, pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. Export demand has declined to over 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand still has some resilience. Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [7]
黑色金属日报-20251126
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-26 11:33