震荡运行：PVC日报-20251126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term due to factors such as high inventory, falling prices from Formosa Plastics in December, and the decline in futures prices of coking coal, despite some positive factors like the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased slightly by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has continued to decline slightly and is still at a low level. India has terminated its BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is likely to be cancelled, and last week's export orders increased month - on - month. However, Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has lowered its December quotes by $30 - 60 per ton. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and the improvement of the real estate market still takes time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities are coming on - stream, and there is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry yet [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased its positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,466 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,501 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,489 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.42%. The position volume decreased by 33,859 lots to 1,227,649 lots [2] Basis - On November 26th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,445 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,489 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 44 yuan/ton, weakening by 13 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply - The maintenance of some devices such as Shandong Xinfafa has ended. The PVC operating rate has increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%. New production capacities including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua are in production or trial - run stages [4] Demand - The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, the investment, new construction, and completion areas of real estate all decreased significantly year - on - year. The comprehensive improvement of the real estate market still takes time. As of the week of November 23rd, the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.56% month - on - month but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1][5] Inventory - As of the week of November 20th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.41% month - on - month to 1.0326 million tons, which was 23.47% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and was still at a high level [6]