铂钯上市系列专题三：铂、钯期货正式合约解读及上市初期策略推荐

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Platinum: Bullish; Palladium: Sideways; Platinum-Palladium Ratio: Bullish [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the significant price increases of platinum and palladium were driven by macro - support and actual spot shortages. The price trends in the first round were more driven by fundamentals, and the second round was largely influenced by the precious metal market. The macro - situation is bullish in the medium - long term but volatile in the short term. The fundamentals are marginally looser but still have room for speculation. The US tariff policy is a crucial variable [1][2][24] - The platinum and palladium futures will be listed on November 27, 2025. Based on the comparison of listing benchmark prices with domestic spot and Nymex futures prices, different trading strategies are recommended, including unilateral trading, inter - commodity arbitrage, internal - external arbitrage, and inter - period arbitrage [3][10][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum/Palladium Futures Contract Formal Draft - The platinum and palladium futures will be officially listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on November 27, 2025. The first - batch listed contracts and trading rules are specified, and compared with the previous draft for comments, the position limit has been modified [10] - The contract parameters of platinum and palladium futures, including trading unit, price quotation unit, etc., are detailed, and the position limit system is also provided [11][13][14] - Other points to note include the long - term expiration of the first - batch listed contracts, the trading time and its impact on internal - external arbitrage [16] 3.2 Platinum/Palladium Futures Delivery Rules Attention Points - The platinum and palladium futures contracts support futures - to - spot, rolling delivery, and one - time delivery. The delivery is carried out in both warehouses and factories. There are differences in quality requirements between domestic and imported delivery products [17] - The delivery regions, delivery warehouses, and factories for platinum and palladium futures are specified. The first - batch registered brands and delivery forms are also introduced [20][22][23] 3.3 Recent Market Analysis and Outlook - From the beginning of 2025 to November 25, platinum and palladium had significant price increases, but their long - term cumulative increases were different. The price increases were driven by macro - factors and actual spot shortages [24] - The macro - situation is bullish in the medium - long term but volatile in the short term. The fundamentals are marginally looser. In 2026, the supply - demand gap of platinum may narrow, and the supply surplus of palladium may expand [26][27] - The US tariff policy is a key variable. Before the policy is implemented, it will support prices, but if the policy eases, prices may decline. There may be speculative hoarding in the market, and there are uncertainties in domestic prices [2][29][33] - The global mainstream ETF positions have declined recently, but the non - commercial net long positions on Nymex are still high. The net long position of palladium is approaching 0, which may affect some overseas precious metal allocation and quantitative funds [35] 3.4 Initial Listing Strategy Recommendations - The listing benchmark prices of platinum and palladium futures are 405 yuan/gram and 365 yuan/gram respectively. Compared with domestic spot and Nymex futures prices, platinum is slightly undervalued, and palladium is slightly overvalued [38][39] - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to cautiously go long on platinum and wait and see for palladium in the short term [40] - Inter - commodity arbitrage: It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium, waiting for price reversal signals [41] - Internal - external arbitrage: It is recommended to use an interval trading approach and be cautious in actual operations [45] - Inter - period arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see at the initial listing stage as the arbitrage space is limited [45]