BOHAI SECURITIES·2025-11-26 12:14Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that gold prices are expected to rise due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a potential reduction of about 75 basis points. This is supported by increasing global ETF demand and stable industrial demand for gold [5][6][8]. - The copper market is projected to face a supply shortage in 2026, driven by the growing demand from renewable energy sectors and AI developments, while supply constraints arise from declining ore grades and geopolitical risks [6][8]. - Tungsten is highlighted for its strategic importance, particularly in high-tech and defense sectors, with strong demand expected from automation and military spending, while supply remains tight due to China's control over production [7][8]. - Cobalt supply is anticipated to decrease significantly due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand from electric vehicle batteries and portable devices is expected to grow, leading to a widening supply gap [8][8]. Industry Performance Review - The steel industry index increased by 22.24% from December 31, 2024, to November 21, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.05 percentage points. The steel sub-sectors showed varied performance, with special steel and common steel experiencing growth [19][20]. - The non-ferrous metals industry index surged by 65.71% during the same period, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 52.53 percentage points, indicating strong overall sector performance [19][20]. - In terms of revenue, the steel industry reported a total of 14,252.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.18%, but with a notable recovery in net profit [27][34]. - The non-ferrous metals sector achieved a revenue of 28,220.96 billion yuan in the same period, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.30%, with substantial increases in net profit across various sub-sectors [34][38]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "overweight" rating on companies such as Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, reflecting confidence in their performance amid favorable market conditions [3][11].