专题研究:《再论股债同向:国债期货与权益市场关系进入新阶段》
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-11-26 12:25

Group 1: Fixed Income Research - The recent correlation between government bond futures and equity markets indicates a new phase, moving beyond the previous simple "see-saw" logic [3][4] - As of November 21, the 10-day correlation between TL contracts and the CSI 300 index has significantly increased to a historical high since July 2025, suggesting a complex relationship [3][4] - The future dynamics of government bond futures are expected to be influenced by equity market movements, indicating a potential for better resilience in bond futures if growth expectations change [4] Group 2: Computer Industry Research - The release of DeepSeek R1 in 2025 is anticipated to significantly enhance general model reasoning capabilities and reduce costs, marking a turning point for AI deployment in financial institutions [5][6] - AI applications are rapidly penetrating core business and back-office scenarios in various financial institutions, aiming to optimize internal operations and enhance external value [6][7] - Large financial institutions are focusing on private deployment of large models, while smaller institutions are pursuing cost-effective solutions for agile development [8] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in financial information services include Tonghuashun and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings, while third-party payment recommendations include Newland and New Guodu [6][7] - In the banking IT sector, recommended stocks include Yuxin Technology and Jingbeifang, with additional recommendations in securities IT and insurance IT sectors [7][8]