甲醇日评20251126：伊朗停车预期兑现-20251126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward space for the 01 contract is limited as the import volume in December is expected to remain high, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction and high port inventory of methanol cannot be resolved in the 01 contract. It is recommended to continue holding the short - put position on the 01 contract and not to chase the high price [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2067 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.48%); MA05 closed at 2188 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.45%); MA09 closed at 2219 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.14%) [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: Prices in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, in Shandong, it increased by 17.50 yuan/ton (0.81%), while in Guangdong, it decreased by 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.25%) [1]. - Price Differences: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 12.00 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - Coal Spot Prices: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 615 yuan/ton, 690 yuan/ton, and 690 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.16 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: The profit of coal - based methanol increased by 70.00 yuan/ton (94.59%) to 144.00 yuan/ton, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 1330.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream Profits: The profit of acetic acid increased by 32.97 yuan/ton (6.47%), while the profits of MTBE, formaldehyde, and other downstream products decreased [1]. 3.4 Important Information - Domestic Futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a narrow range, opening at 2075 yuan/ton, closing at 2067 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1.276 million lots and a position of 1.2004 million lots, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - Foreign Information: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance, and another plant with a capacity of 1.65 million tons is also planned to be shut down for maintenance soon [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Continue to hold the short - put position on the 01 contract (viewpoint score: 0) [1].