建材行业26年投资策略：“反内卷”下拐点渐显，关注出海及转型机遇

Group 1 - The construction materials industry is experiencing a downward trend due to factors such as real estate decline and low infrastructure funding rates, with significant supply clearance leading to price stabilization expected in 2025 [2][21] - Domestic demand is anticipated to improve with the implementation of policies aimed at reducing overproduction and controlling energy consumption, particularly in the cement sector [2][26] - The overseas expansion of construction materials companies, exemplified by Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing, is opening new growth opportunities, leveraging supply chain and management advantages [2][82] Group 2 - The construction materials index increased by 15.41% as of November 23, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 13.18%, ranking 11th among all industries [7][21] - The glass fiber and cement sectors showed superior performance, with significant year-on-year profit improvements in the first half of 2025, while the pipe and glass manufacturing sectors lagged due to declining completion demand [7][14] - The overall revenue of the construction materials sector continues to decline, but the rate of decline has narrowed significantly compared to previous years, with profits beginning to rebound [14][18] Group 3 - The cement industry is under pressure, with long-term demand declining by approximately 30% from peak levels, and 2025 is expected to see continued high single-digit production declines [25][26] - The core of the "anti-involution" policy in the cement sector focuses on limiting overproduction, with the potential for improved capacity utilization if policies are effectively executed [26][27] - Major players like Conch Cement are expected to benefit from cost advantages and a gradual recovery in profitability as the industry stabilizes [27] Group 4 - The glass industry is facing demand suppression due to declining construction activity, with expectations for demand to bottom out in 2026 [31][33] - Market-driven capacity reduction is crucial, as the glass sector is currently experiencing losses, and the industry is expected to see a significant reduction in new capacity in 2025 [34][38] - Companies like Qibin Group are positioned to benefit from a potential recovery in the glass market, particularly in the photovoltaic segment [42] Group 5 - The glass fiber sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2026, with high demand for specialty fibers driven by AI applications [49][53] - The industry is experiencing structural differentiation, with high profitability in wind power and thermoplastic sectors, while traditional segments remain under pressure [49][50] - Companies like China Jushi are well-positioned due to their optimal product structure and significant cost advantages [54] Group 6 - The consumer building materials sector is transitioning into a stock market era, with a focus on channel transformation and renovation demand from existing homes [62][63] - Companies are experiencing strong pricing power, with expectations for profitability to recover as the industry stabilizes [63][65] - Leading companies like Rabbit Baby are effectively expanding channels and product lines, achieving stable revenue growth despite overall market weakness [67] Group 7 - The overseas expansion of construction materials companies is becoming increasingly important, with international markets offering higher profit margins compared to domestic markets [82] - Huaxin Cement has established a strong overseas presence, contributing significantly to its revenue and profitability [86] - Keda Manufacturing is recognized as a leading player in the African ceramics market, consistently delivering high profitability [88]