万家中证工业有色金属主题ETF投资价值分析：供需紧平衡支撑行业景气，工业有色金属价值凸显

• The "CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index" (H11059.CSI) focuses on industrial nonferrous metals, selecting 30 large-cap securities involved in industries such as copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare earth metals to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in this theme. The index uses adjusted free-float market capitalization weighting, with individual sample weights capped at 15%, and the top five samples collectively capped at 60%[24][25][26] - The index is rebalanced semi-annually, with sample adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December[25] - The index's top five constituent stocks account for 36.57% of the total weight, while the top ten account for 54.18%, with leading companies like Northern Rare Earth, China Molybdenum, and Aluminum Corporation of China having significant weightage. This concentration enhances the index's sensitivity to price cycles and supply-demand changes in key resources like rare earths, copper, and aluminum[28][29][30] - Compared to other nonferrous metal indices, such as the CSI SW Nonferrous Metals Index, the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index has lower exposure to energy and precious metals, making it more focused on industrial metals closely tied to macroeconomic cycles. This characteristic provides higher elasticity during manufacturing recovery and economic rebound phases[30][33][34] - Over the backtesting period from January 1, 2021, to November 10, 2025, the index achieved an annualized return of 9.18%, outperforming broad-based indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index. However, it also exhibited higher annualized volatility (32.29%) and a maximum drawdown of -61%[35][39][40] - The index's valuation (PE_TTM) has shown a downward trend over the past five years, with a recent recovery driven by market sentiment and sector rebound. As of November 10, 2025, the index's PE ratio stood at 20.41x, at the 68.56th percentile of its five-year valuation range, indicating reasonable investment value amid improving industry fundamentals[41][43][44] - The index's profit scale has grown significantly, with total profits increasing from 46.139 billion yuan in 2020 to 168.052 billion yuan in 2022, representing a compound growth rate of over 90%. After a temporary decline in 2023, profits rebounded in 2024 with a 19.05% year-on-year growth, and further growth is expected in 2025 and 2026[45][47]