铂钯行业研究系列报告：“铂”取大势，“钯”握微末（九）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum and palladium futures are set to be listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on November 27, 2025. The theoretical values of platinum and palladium on the listing day are lower than the benchmark prices, so the prices may initially decline to approach the forward parity structure. However, considering the high trading activity at the beginning of the domestic futures listing, the prices may first rise. In the long - term, the fundamentals of platinum and palladium are differentiated. Platinum has a stable and good fundamental situation and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term, with a price range of 400 - 480 yuan/gram in the first half of next year. Palladium's demand is expected to remain weak, but its price center may rise slightly, with a price range of 350 - 420 yuan/gram in the first half of next year [2][41]. - Various investment strategies are proposed, including single - side strategies, spot - futures strategies, inter - period strategies, cross - variety strategies, and cross - market strategies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum Futures Contract Key Element Analysis - Contract Details: Platinum futures will be listed on November 27, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts are PT2606, PT2608, and PT2610, with PT2606 expected to be the most active and the main contract. The listing price of each contract on the first day is 405 yuan/gram. The trading margin level on the listing day is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 14% of the benchmark price. If the contract has trading volume, from the next trading day, the trading margin level is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price. Otherwise, the margin and limit range of the listing day will continue to apply [8]. - Delivery Product Standards: The benchmark delivery product of platinum futures requires a purity of not less than 99.95%. The impurity element content is specified according to different forms and sources, with different requirements for domestic and imported platinum ingots, spongy platinum, and powdered platinum [10]. - Delivery Warehouse Settings and Regions: Platinum futures have three types of delivery locations: warehouses, production - type factory warehouses, and trading - type factory warehouses. The first batch of factory warehouses and warehouses are all benchmark warehouses without any premium or discount. The maximum capacity of platinum in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 50.25 tons, with warehouses accounting for 79.6% and factory warehouses accounting for 20.4%. Factory warehouses are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Shanghai, and warehouses are concentrated in Shanghai [14][15]. - Delivery Brand Settings: Platinum futures implement a brand - based delivery system. There are 14 domestic registered brands and 26 overseas registered brands. Different brands can deliver different forms of platinum products [18]. 3.2 Palladium Futures Contract Key Element Analysis - Contract Details: Palladium futures will be listed on November 27, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts are PD2606, PD2608, and PD2610, with PD2606 expected to be the most active and the main contract. The listing price of each contract on the first day is 365 yuan/gram. The trading margin level on the listing day is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 14% of the benchmark price. If the contract has trading volume, from the next trading day, the trading margin level is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price. Otherwise, the margin and limit range of the listing day will continue to apply [21]. - Delivery Product Standards: The benchmark delivery product of palladium futures requires a purity of not less than 99.95%. The impurity element content is specified according to different forms and sources, with different requirements for domestic and imported palladium ingots, spongy palladium, and powdered palladium [24]. - Delivery Warehouse Settings and Regions: Palladium futures have three types of delivery locations: warehouses, production - type factory warehouses, and trading - type factory warehouses. The first batch of factory warehouses and warehouses are all benchmark warehouses without any premium or discount. The maximum capacity of palladium in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 42.705 tons, with warehouses accounting for 93.67% and factory warehouses accounting for 6.33%. Factory warehouses are mainly concentrated in Yunnan and Gansu, and warehouses are concentrated in Shanghai [27][28]. - Delivery Brand Settings: Palladium futures implement a brand - based delivery system. There are 13 domestic registered brands and 24 overseas registered brands. Different brands can deliver different forms of palladium products [29]. 3.3 Platinum and Palladium Futures Investment Outlook - Single - side Strategy on the Listing Day: The theoretical values of platinum and palladium on the listing day are lower than the benchmark prices. In the short - term, the prices may decline to approach the forward parity structure. However, considering the high trading activity at the beginning of the domestic futures listing, the prices may first rise. From a fundamental perspective, the prices may show a pattern of rising first and then falling. In the next 12 months, the prices of platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate narrowly downward. In the medium - to - long term, platinum is expected to rise, with a price range of 400 - 480 yuan/gram in the first half of next year, while palladium's price center may rise slightly, with a price range of 350 - 420 yuan/gram in the first half of next year [2][39][41]. - Spot - Futures Strategy Cost Calculation: Taking the strategy of buying spot and selling the 2606 contract as an example, the cost of the platinum spot - futures strategy is about 7.5 yuan/gram, and the cost of the palladium spot - futures strategy is about 6.7 yuan/gram. If relevant opportunities arise, risk - free arbitrage strategies can be considered [43][44]. - Inter - period Strategy: Due to the regulation that the platinum and palladium delivery factories in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be uniformly cancelled in August each year, the price of the 2608 contract may be under pressure. Therefore, the inter - period strategy can consider buying the 2606 contract and selling the 2610 contract. When the price of PT2610 is about 5.1 yuan/gram higher than PT2606, and the price of PD2610 is about 4.6 yuan/gram higher than PD2606, there are risk - free positive arbitrage opportunities [48]. - Cross - variety Strategy: Based on the differentiated fundamentals of platinum and palladium, the cross - variety arbitrage strategy considers going long on platinum and short on palladium. If the platinum - to - palladium ratio approaches 1 after the contract listing, an arbitrage position can be considered, with a target ratio of 1.2 - 1.3 [53]. - Cross - market Strategy: There may be positive risk - free arbitrage opportunities in the cross - market part, which can be achieved by selling domestic futures and buying overseas spot forwards. The break - even points of this type of strategy are about 46.2 yuan/gram for platinum and about 42.9 yuan/gram for palladium [62].