农产品早报2025-11-27：五矿期货农产品早报-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Soybean/M粕类: CBOT soybeans rose on Wednesday due to demand support and pre - holiday short - covering. The import cost bottom may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][3][5]. - Oils and Fats: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production showed mixed trends. Domestic oils stopped falling and rebounded. Palm oil may reverse its supply - surplus situation in the future, and it is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [7][9]. - Sugar: New sugar - cane season production in major countries is expected to increase, and the global sugar market is shifting from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall [11][12]. - Cotton: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market lacks strong driving forces. Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][15]. - Eggs: The spot market is in a stalemate. The futures market is expected to fluctuate before the spot price rises seasonally. In the medium - term, pay attention to supply and wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - Pigs: The supply of live pigs remains under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or use reverse spreads [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/M粕类 - Market Information: CBOT soybeans rose on Wednesday. Brazilian soybean premiums increased slightly, and domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 231.73 million tons. As of November 22, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress was 78.0% [2][3]. - Strategy: The import cost bottom may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production showed mixed trends. Domestic oils stopped falling and rebounded on Wednesday, and the spot basis rose slightly [7]. - Strategy: Palm oil may reverse its supply - surplus situation in the future. It is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective, and turn to a long - position if production decline signals appear [9]. Sugar - Market Information: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. Brazilian sugar production in the first half of November 2025 is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year. As of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, a decrease of 26 compared to last year [11]. - Strategy: New sugar - cane season production in major countries is expected to increase, and the global sugar market is shifting from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall [12]. Cotton - Market Information: Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. As of November 21, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase by 52 million tons [14]. - Strategy: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market lacks strong driving forces. Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [15]. Eggs - Market Information: Most egg prices remained stable on the previous day, with supply and demand in a stalemate [17]. - Strategy: The futures market is expected to fluctuate before the spot price rises seasonally. In the medium - term, pay attention to supply and wait for a rebound to short [18]. Pigs - Market Information: Domestic pig prices mainly fell on the previous day, with some areas rising slightly. The supply of live pigs remains high, and the price increase space is limited [20]. - Strategy: The supply of live pigs remains under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or use reverse spreads [21].