黑色建材日报-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. Prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short term, but may have a marginal inflection point as policies are implemented and the macro - environment improves [4]. - Iron ore is expected to operate within a volatile range due to strong supply, stable demand, and partial resource shortages during the macro - vacuum period [7]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, although the current downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [11]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with attention to phased emotional disturbances [15]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely within a range, and future focuses are on the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [18]. - Glass prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom, with limited room for further decline [21]. - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak operation until the glass demand shows substantial improvement [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 7773 tons, and the main contract open interest decreased by 100338 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai summary prices of rebar decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 0 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3304 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract open interest decreased by 64552 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai summary prices of hot - rolled coils decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral overall performance. The terminal demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but the inventory level was still high. The anti - dumping duty imposed by South Korea on Chinese steel products will have a certain impact on steel exports [4]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 797.00 yuan/ton, up 0.38% (+ 3.00). The open interest decreased by 17489 lots to 41.98 million lots. The weighted open interest was 93.02 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 50.89 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.00% [6]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts, and the steel mill profitability continued to decline. The overall inventory of iron ore was still high, but there were structural contradictions, and the spot had certain support. It is expected to operate within a volatile range [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.11% at 5630 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.59% at 5416 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 16 yuan/ton to the futures [9][10]. Strategy Views - Market risk appetite has weakened. Affected by factors such as the weakening of the expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut and the decline of coking coal prices, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have dropped significantly. However, with the increase in the expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut and the possible end of the decline in coking coal prices, there is no need to be overly pessimistic [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9020 yuan/ton, up 0.67% (+ 60). The weighted open interest increased by 1722 lots to 433464 lots. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, with a basis of 330 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 70 yuan/ton [14]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 55895 yuan/ton, up 2.13% (+ 1165). The weighted open interest increased by 15342 lots to 254372 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and N - type re - feeding material was 52.25 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 3645 yuan/ton [17]. Strategy Views - The production of industrial silicon has been decreasing, and the demand from downstream polysilicon and organic silicon has shown different trends. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15]. - The production of polysilicon in November decreased, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term inventory reduction is expected to be limited. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range [18]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1014 yuan/ton, up 0.10% (+ 1). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million cases (+ 0.09%). The number of long positions of the top 20 buyers increased by 17407 lots, and the number of short positions of the top 20 sellers decreased by 44249 lots [20]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (- 10). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons (+ 0.09%). The number of long positions of the top 20 buyers increased by 3835 lots, and the number of short positions of the top 20 sellers decreased by 13280 lots [22]. Strategy Views - The expectation of cold - repair of glass production lines in December has increased, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom [21]. - The supply of soda ash exceeds demand. The demand for light soda ash is stable, while the demand for heavy soda ash is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak operation [23].