宁证期货今日早评-20251127

Group 1: Report Core Views - US economic slowdown pressure increases, Fed's December rate - cut expectation surges, precious metals are oscillating with an upward bias; gold is short - term oscillating with an upward bias and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - L2601 contract of plastics is expected to run weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 6770 line [1] - Iron ore is expected to run within an oscillating range as supply is strong and demand is stable during the macro vacuum period [3] - The downward persistence of coking coal futures is to be observed due to potential year - end production decline and the upcoming Politburo meeting [4] - Steel prices may oscillate in the short term, and the upside space may be limited by weak off - season demand [4] - LH2601 contract of live pigs still has downward pressure and will remain weak after adjustment [5] - Palm oil prices are supported by future fundamentals, but the main contract is facing roll - over, so it is recommended to wait and see [5] - The 01 contract of soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [7] - The bond market has entered an oscillating range again, and the operation difficulty has increased [7] - Silver is oscillating with an upward bias in the medium term [7] - Crude oil should be treated with an oscillating and weakening view [8] - The 01 contract of methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2100 line [8] - The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to run weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 1190 line [9][10] Group 2: Industry Data Plastics - North China LLDPE mainstream price is 6919 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous day; LLDPE weekly output is 30.46 tons, down 1.19% week - on - week; production enterprise inventory is 16.61 tons, down 15.98% week - on - week; oil - based daily production profit is - 335 yuan/ton; the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products has increased by 0.2% week - on - week [1] Iron Ore - From November 17th to 23rd, the global iron ore shipping volume is 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 238.0 tons compared with the previous period; the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil is 2637.4 tons, a decrease of 271.3 tons; Australia's shipping volume is 1839.6 tons, a decrease of 210.9 tons, and the volume shipped to China is 1553.6 tons, a decrease of 319.4 tons [3] Coking Coal - This week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines is 191.3 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons compared with the previous period; the daily output of raw coal in Shanxi is 110.2 tons, a decrease of 2 tons; 11 new coal mines have stopped production, involving a production capacity of 11.35 million tons; 1 new coal mine has resumed production, involving a production capacity of 1.75 million tons [4] Steel - On November 24th, domestic steel market prices mainly rose slightly; the ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet resources increased by 30 to 2980 yuan/ton; 2 steel mills raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 30 yuan/ton, and 2 steel mills lowered the ex - factory price by 20 - 30 yuan/ton; the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country is 3283 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [4] Live Pigs - On November 26th, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 17.87 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.8% compared with the previous day; the price of eggs is 7.27 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the previous day [5] Palm Oil - From November 1st to 25th, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.34% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and the output increased by 5.49% month - on - month [5] Soybean Meal - As of November 26th, the domestic soybean meal spot market price has increased steadily; the price in Tianjin market is 3060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong market is 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Jiangsu market is 2980 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price in Guangdong market is 2970 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the national soybean meal inventory has reached 1.1515 million tons [6][7] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties mostly declined; the overnight variety remained flat at 1.316%; the 7 - day variety increased by 2.0BP to 1.453%; the 14 - day variety decreased by 3.3BP to 1.507%; the 1 - month variety decreased by 0.1BP to 1.519% [7] Crude Oil - News shows that there are still differences among parties regarding the "peace plan" for Ukraine, and all parties need time to weigh their interests [8] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2088 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton; the domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate is 88.75%, an increase of 1.8%; the downstream total capacity utilization rate is 74.77%, an increase of 0.42% week - on - week; the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples is 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons week - on - week; the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 373,700 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons week - on - week; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 230,700 tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons week - on - week [8] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1261 yuan/ton, and the price has been relatively stable recently; the weekly output of soda ash is 739,200 tons, a decrease of 1.02% compared with the previous period; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7073 million tons, a decrease of 0.4% week - on - week; the operating rate of float glass is 75%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points week - on - week; the average price of national float glass is 1091 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 63.247 million weight cases, a decrease of 0.18% compared with the previous period [9]