国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The trading of high - yield margins weakens, and there is a technical rebound [2][4] - Soybean oil: Mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil should be widened [2][4] - Soybean meal: During the roll - over period, it may still be mainly in a range - bound oscillation [2][10] - Soybean: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates [2][10] - Corn: Oscillating with an upward bias [2][13] - Sugar: Pay attention to the new sugar price quotes [2][17] - Cotton: Pay attention to the trend of the spot basis [2][22] - Eggs: The volume of culled chickens increases, providing expected support [2][28] - Pigs: The inventory reduction node is approaching, and the near - term pressure is increasing [2][30] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the spot market [2][34] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil 3.1.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,440 yuan/ton with a 0.96% increase, and (night session) 8,416 yuan/ton with a - 0.28% decrease; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,150 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase, and (night session) 8,150 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change [5] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 8,290 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,470 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [5] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) was - 150 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 320 yuan/ton [5] - Spread: The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 290 yuan/ton [5] 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - From November 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 3.34% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and the production increased by 5.49% month - on - month [6] 3.1.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [9] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean 3.2.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: DCE soybean 2601's closing price (day session) was 4094 yuan/ton with a - 0.56% decrease, and (night session) 4098 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% decrease; DCE soybean meal 2601's closing price (day session) was 3015 yuan/ton with a + 0.20% increase, and (night session) 3013 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% decrease [10] - Spot: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 3030 - 3100 yuan/ton, remaining flat or increasing by 30 yuan [10] - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.65 million tons per day, and the inventory was 105.65 million tons per week [10] 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - On November 26, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to Chinese procurement demand. Since October, China has purchased about 350 million tons of US soybeans, about 30% of the 1200 - million - ton target [10][11][12] 3.2.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0 [12] 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: C2601's closing price (day session) was 2,235 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase, and (night session) 2,234 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% decrease; C2603's closing price (day session) was 2,232 yuan/ton with a 1.00% increase, and (night session) 2,233 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase [14] - Spot: The price in Guangdong Shekou was 2,440 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [14] - Basis: The main 01 basis was 5 yuan/ton [14] 3.3.2 Macro and Industry News - The northern corn bulk shipping port price increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price increased by 30 yuan/ton [15] 3.3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16] 3.4 Sugar 3.4.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The futures main price was 5379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [17] - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [17] - Basis: The mainstream spot basis was 261 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [17] 3.4.2 Macro and Industry News - The 25/26 Indian sugar export quota is 150 million tons. Brazil's October sugar production increased by 1% year - on - year, and exports increased by 13% year - on - year. China's October sugar imports were 75 million tons (+ 21 million tons) [17] 3.4.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [20] 3.5 Cotton 3.5.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: CF2601's closing price (day session) was 13,625 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% decrease, and (night session) 13645 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; CY2601's closing price (day session) was 20,070 yuan/ton with a 0.02% increase, and (night session) 20090 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase [22] - Spot: The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,536 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [22] - Basis: The northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton - CF601 basis was 910 yuan/ton [22] 3.5.2 Macro and Industry News - The domestic cotton spot trading was stable, with spinning mills mainly making rigid - demand purchases. ICE cotton futures continued to rebound due to the rising expectation of US interest rate cuts [23][24] 3.5.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [25] 3.6 Eggs 3.6.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of eggs 2512 was 2,919 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.31% decrease; the closing price of eggs 2601 was 3,549 yuan/500 kg with a 0.22% increase [28] - Spot: The Liaoning spot price was 2.90 yuan/jin [28] 3.6.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [28] 3.7 Pigs 3.7.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The price of pigs 2601 was 11540 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the price of pigs 2603 was 11365 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of pigs 2605 was 12060 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [31] - Spot: The Henan spot price was 11430 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [31] - Basis: The pigs 2601 basis was - 110 yuan/ton [31] 3.7.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of pigs is - 1 [32] 3.8 Peanuts 3.8.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: PK601's closing price was 8,186 yuan/ton with a 3.99% increase; PK603's closing price was 8,176 yuan/ton with a 3.73% increase [34] - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [34] - Basis: The Liaoning 308 common peanut basis was 1,624 yuan/ton [34] 3.8.2 Spot Market Focus - In Henan, the price of Huangludian white - sand common peanuts was about 3.9 yuan/jin, and the price of Xinxiang large peanuts was about 4.2 yuan/jin [35] 3.8.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [36]