中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌参半，油脂油料涨幅居前-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Macro: On November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the expectation of a December rate cut. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and it is recommended to follow the key voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: China's internal economic momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan in policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The loan prime rate has remained stable since May, suggesting the central bank may not rush to further relax policies. New and second - hand housing sales and land supply have increased, but land transactions remain low, and real - estate work demand and production capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payrolls, the December rate - cut expectation was initially lowered, and the US dollar index rose. However, the New York Fed President's speech lifted the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to balance asset allocation in Q4, and pay attention to opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals during market dips [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The Fed's expectation management is shifting, with a possible dovish turn in key figures' speeches in the next two weeks [8]. - Domestic: Policy measures may support Q4 infrastructure investment. The central bank may not rush to relax policies. Real - estate sales have improved, but land transactions and work demand are weak [8]. - Asset Allocation: Balance asset allocation in Q4. Look for buying opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals during market dips [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - Financial Sector: With reduced overseas shocks, the risk appetite may rise. Stock index futures may rise in a volatile manner, stock index options may remain stable, and treasury bond futures may also rise in a volatile way [9]. - Precious Metals: In a short - term adjustment phase, gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate [9]. - Shipping: Attention should be paid to the freight rate decline rate of the European container shipping line, which is expected to be volatile [9]. - Black Building Materials: The rebound momentum is weakening. Steel, iron ore, coke, and other products are expected to fluctuate [9]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Optimism is rising, and base metals may stop falling and rebound, with most products expected to fluctuate [9]. - Energy and Chemicals: The trade situation has slightly eased, but the supply - demand imbalance persists. Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate, while some may decline [11]. - Agriculture: Market sentiment has improved, but trends are divergent. Some agricultural products are expected to rise, while others may decline or remain stable [11].