生猪供给压力持续，现货依旧偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others may face downward or upward pressure in different time frames [1]. - The agricultural market is influenced by multiple factors, including supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, policies, and international trade [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Livestock (Pigs) - Viewpoint: Supply pressure persists, and the spot price remains weak [1][2]. - Logic: In the short - term, monthly supply is abundant, and the planned daily slaughter of large - scale farms in November slightly increases compared to October. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive until the first quarter of 2026. In the long - term, sow production capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026. Demand is insufficient, and the average slaughter weight is increasing [2]. - Outlook: Oscillate weakly. The near - term contracts may continue to be weak due to high - capacity realization and large - pig slaughter pressure at the end of the year. The far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [3]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: The expected increase in November's palm oil production in Malaysia narrows, and market sentiment shows signs of stabilization [6]. - Logic: From a macro perspective, the market anticipates an improvement in US soybean export demand and a possible Fed rate cut in December. In the industry, the progress of South American soybean planting is smooth, and the expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is high. For palm oil, the expected month - on - month increase in Malaysia's November production narrows, and exports decline. For rapeseed oil, domestic supply is currently tight, but it may increase later [6]. - Outlook: Soybean oil is expected to oscillate strongly, palm oil to oscillate, and rapeseed oil to oscillate strongly. The market may gradually stabilize [6]. 3.3 Protein Meals - Viewpoint: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the M15 spread decreases [7]. - Logic: Internationally, Sino - US communication may boost market sentiment. La Nina is expected, and South American soybean planting is progressing. Brazilian soybean exports in November are expected to reach 440 million tons. Domestically, the profit of soybean imports is repaired, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is high. The sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal increase, and the inventory of soybean meal decreases seasonally [7]. - Outlook: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean and rapeseed meals are expected to oscillate within a range [8]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - Viewpoint: There is a short - term supply - demand tightness, and prices oscillate at a high level [9]. - Logic: The current supply - demand situation is tight. Factors include farmers' reluctance to sell, downstream replenishment needs, differences in grain quality and regional price differences, traders' rush to buy, and tight transportation capacity [10]. - Outlook: Oscillate. In the short - term, the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price will continue to oscillate [11]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The impact of floods in the production area needs further observation [13]. - Logic: After the previous decline due to high export data in October and weak downstream procurement, the market rebounded due to the flood in southern Thailand. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand has not changed significantly. The RU contract may face greater selling pressure than the NR contract [14]. - Outlook: Oscillate. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range and high - elasticity oscillation, and there is no obvious trend [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: Continue to oscillate within a range [15]. - Logic: The BR contract rebounded recently, mainly due to the relatively stable trading of raw material butadiene. However, there is still pressure on the fundamentals and raw material side [15]. - Outlook: Before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene, short - selling on rallies is recommended [15]. 3.7 Cotton - Viewpoint: Under the game between long and short forces, it will continue to oscillate within a range in the short - term [16]. - Logic: On the supply side, Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase in production. On the demand side, consumption has been good in recent months. The commercial inventory is accumulating, and the price is supported by cost and downstream procurement but faces hedging pressure [16]. - Outlook: In the short - term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range. In the long - term, it is undervalued and is expected to oscillate strongly. Buying on dips is recommended [16]. 3.8 Sugar - Viewpoint: In the medium - and long - term, there is a downward drive, but the cost side provides short - term support [16]. - Logic: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. The supply pressure will increase as the new sugar is pressed. However, the 01 contract shows some support at 5300 yuan/ton [16]. - Outlook: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, and the support at 5300 yuan/ton should be monitored in the short - term [16]. 3.9 Pulp - Viewpoint: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the logic of near - and far - term futures differs [17]. - Logic: The recent decline in futures is due to the withdrawal of long - position funds. There are both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to oscillate within a wide range [18]. - Outlook: Oscillate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and pulp futures will mainly oscillate widely [18]. 3.10 Offset Paper - Viewpoint: The raw material price is weak, and offset paper oscillates at a low level [19]. - Logic: The weakening of the pulp market and light social demand affect the price. Although some paper mills want to maintain prices, the market remains under supply pressure [19]. - Outlook: Supply pressure persists. There is price support in the short - term due to publishers' purchases, but it may oscillate weakly in the medium - term [20]. 3.11 Logs - Viewpoint: Log prices are weakening and entering the deep - value area [21]. - Logic: The market is weak with no obvious buying interest. The supply from New Zealand is expected to increase in December, and demand is expected to be weak in 2026 [21]. - Outlook: The supply is loose, demand has no incremental expectation, and the spot price is under pressure. It will maintain a narrow - range bottom - oscillating trend [21]. 3.12 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The overall commodity index shows different trends. The special index, including the commodity 20 index and industrial product index, shows slight increases, while the PPI commodity index shows a slight decrease [179]. - Agricultural Product Index: On November 26, 2025, the agricultural product index increased by 0.30% on the day, 0.55% in the past 5 days, 0.06% in the past month, and decreased by 2.68% since the beginning of the year [180].