宝城期货原油早报-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term view of "oscillation", a medium - term view of "oscillation", and an intraday view of "stronger". The reference view is "stronger operation"[1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time Cycle and View - Short - term (within one week): The crude oil 2601 contract shows an oscillatory trend[1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): It is in an oscillatory state[1] - Intraday: It is expected to be stronger[1] 3.2 Core Logic - The macro sentiment weakened due to the significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data released by the US last weekend[5] - The latest quarterly report of OPEC changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply - demand deficit" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply[5] - The weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment. The market's concern that the Russia - Ukraine conflict may reach a ceasefire agreement has led to the retracement of the geopolitical premium in the oil market[5] - The domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price slightly rising. It is expected to maintain a stronger trend on Thursday[5]