Report Summary Core View - On November 26, 2025, A-share major indexes showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.14%. The trading volume of the two markets slightly decreased by 28.8 billion yuan to 1.7833 trillion yuan [1]. - Various futures varieties also had different trends. For example, the CSI 300 Index trended stronger, while the coke and coking coal weighted indexes trended weaker [1][2]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 26, the CSI 300 Index closed at 4,517.63, up 27.22 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On November 26, the coke weighted index closed at 1,662.8, down 22.4; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1,124.9 yuan, down 10.4 [2][3]. - For coke, the fourth round of price increases has been implemented. The iron - water output decreased by 0.60 million tons to 2.3628 million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 19 yuan/ton [4]. - For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is 1,550, equivalent to 1,330 on the futures market. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on ensuring the supply of thermal coal in 2026, weakening the futures market expectation. The mine capacity utilization rate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of coal - washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the increase in new sugar supply and the decline in spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract trended slightly lower on November 26. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year to 1.075 million tons. The US sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 9.319 million short tons [4]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, the Shanghai rubber futures trended slightly lower on November 26. Heavy rainfall in southern Thailand affected at least 13 million rai of rubber plantations, resulting in a loss of over 20,000 tons of rubber production. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 10 months increased by 5.8% year - on - year to 3.64 million tons [4][5]. Palm Oil - On November 26, the decline of palm oil futures prices slowed down, and the main contract P2601 closed up 0.96% at 8,440. From November 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 3.34% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and the production increased by 5.49% month - on - month [5]. Live Pigs - On November 26, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,540 yuan/ton, up 1.1%. The inventory of breeding sows exceeds the normal level, the production efficiency has improved, and the number of newborn piglets remains high. The large - scale farms have a strong willingness to sell pigs at the end of the year, suppressing the upward movement of futures prices. The traditional bacon - making season has started, but the overall demand has not yet formed a scale [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher on November 26. Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 4.4 million tons. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,015 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The oil - mill crushing volume remains high, and the soybean meal inventory is sufficient. Chinese importers have made large - scale purchases of US soybeans, and the downstream is cautious about stockpiling [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper trended slightly stronger, opening at 86,750 yuan/ton and closing at 86,590 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The trading volume was 107,213 lots, and the open interest was 204,728 lots [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 26, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,645 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 2 lots compared with the previous day. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 26 was 6.07 - 6.1 yuan/kg [6]. Logs - On November 26, the Log 2601 contract opened at 764, with a minimum of 762, a maximum of 768.5, and closed at 765, with an increase of 336 lots in open interest. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 750 yuan/cubic meter. The log inventory has reached a three - month high [6][7][8]. Iron Ore - On November 26, the Iron Ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.19% at 797 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume has declined, the arrival volume has increased, and the port and steel - mill inventories have decreased. The iron - water output has declined again, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [8]. Asphalt - On November 26, the Asphalt 2601 main contract closed down 0.56% at 3,043 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in December has decreased, the inventory is being depleted, and the shipment volume has increased slightly. However, due to weather conditions, the downstream demand is limited, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [8]. Steel - On November 26, rb2601 closed at 3,099 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3,304 yuan/ton. The demand is facing seasonal decline and structural weakness. The real - estate industry continues to drag down the consumption of rebar, and the market trading may show a trend of "both volume and price decline" [8]. Alumina - On November 26, ao2601 closed at 2,720 yuan/ton. Recently, there has been some price - pressure in electrolytic aluminum tenders. The spot market trading was light, and the supply in the market may increase if futures warehouse receipts flow into the market, which may drive down the spot price [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 26, al2601 closed at 21,455 yuan/ton. The supply is stable, and the aluminum ingot supply is good. The social inventory may continue to decline slightly. The demand is average, and the aluminum price remains in a volatile range. The performance in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial materials sectors is relatively stable, while the demand for aluminum rods and poles is average [8].
国新国证期货早报-20251127
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-11-27 01:45