铂钯期货上市首日交易策略

Report Title - Platinum and Palladium Futures Listing Day Trading Strategy, November 27, 2025 [2] Core Views - The listing of platinum and palladium futures will create a "Chinese price", eliminating exchange - rate risk exposure for enterprises, and the contract delivery design is more in line with domestic industrial characteristics, improving hedging efficiency for industrial users. Options provide more flexible risk - management tools [4][7] - Platinum and palladium supply are both highly concentrated. Platinum demand is diverse, while palladium demand is highly focused on automobile exhaust catalysts. China is a major consumer but lacks resources [4] - The fundamentals of platinum involve supply shortages and diverse demand, so the main strategy is to buy on dips. Palladium's largest demand area, automobile exhaust catalysts, is being eroded by the electric vehicle wave, facing a structural decline. A long - platinum and short - palladium strategy is the mainstream medium - to - long - term arbitrage strategy [4] - The first - day listing prices of platinum and palladium futures announced by GZEX are lower than the prices calculated based on overseas markets. It is expected that there will be a concentrated release of long - position funds after the opening, and price fluctuations may be large [4][21] Trading Rules - Platinum and palladium futures are officially listed on GZEX today, and options will be listed tomorrow (November 28). The trading unit is 1000 grams per lot, the quotation unit is yuan/gram, and the contract months are even - numbered months. The trading time is from 9:00 to 11:30 am and 13:30 to 15:00 pm, with no night trading. The last trading day is the 10th trading day of the contract month, and the last delivery date is the 3rd trading day after the last trading day [5] - The first - day listing contracts are for the months of 2606, 2608, and 2610. The minimum price change is 0.05 yuan/gram. The initial margin level on the listing day is 9% of the contract value, and the price limit is 14% of the listing benchmark price. If there is trading, the margin remains at 9% from the next trading day, and the price limit is adjusted to 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price. If there is no trading, the initial margin and price limit remain unchanged [6] - Platinum and palladium futures use physical delivery, with a delivery unit of 1000 grams. The delivery products must have a content of not less than 99.95%, and can be in the form of ingots, sponge, or powder. There are both factory - warehouse and regular - warehouse delivery methods, and the delivery methods include transfer of futures to cash, rolling delivery, and one - time delivery [6] Supply and Demand Characteristics Supply - Global platinum - group mineral resources are highly concentrated, and mining development is slow. In recent years, global platinum - gold mine production has generally declined due to factors such as power crises, safety accidents, political uncertainties in South Africa, and reduced capital expenditure and corporate restructuring by mining companies. In 2024, 71% of platinum - mine production came from South Africa, and South Africa and Russia contributed 38% and 39% of palladium - mine production respectively, with the top ten platinum - palladium mines accounting for over 70% of production and the top five palladium - mine enterprises accounting for 80.4% [8] Demand - Platinum demand is diverse, used in multiple industries such as automotive, chemical, new energy, electronics, and jewelry. Palladium demand is highly concentrated in automobile exhaust catalysts, with nearly 80% of global palladium consumption in this area. Platinum's demand structure is more stable, while palladium demand has been declining in the past three years due to the impact of new - energy vehicles [13][14] China's Situation - China has scarce platinum - group resources, with a reserve of only 87.69 tons, less than 0.1% of the global total, and a 2024 production of 4.9 tons, less than 1% of the global output. China's platinum and palladium supply is highly dependent on imports, with a 2024 platinum import - dependence of 80% and a palladium import - dependence of 55% [15][18] - China's platinum and palladium demand is rising. In 2024, China's apparent consumption of platinum was 185.25 tons and that of palladium was 97.04 tons, with market sizes of 424.16 billion yuan and 252.78 billion yuan respectively. With the "dual - carbon" strategy, green industries are the main source of incremental demand [18] Strategy Recommendations Medium - to - Long - Term Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Buy platinum on dips [4][21][22] - Arbitrage strategy: Long platinum and short palladium [3][4][21] Short - Term Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Buy both platinum and palladium at the opening [3][22]