Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Rising" investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rise in lithium carbonate prices is driven by a strong real - world fundamental situation and the transformation of the weak 2026E expectation into a strong one, leading to a resonance in the linkage between stocks and futures [6] - There are differences in lithium price increases during the off - season in 26Q1 under the strong 2026E expectation, while the peak season in 26H2 has stronger certainty [15] - The current market is trading based on strong fundamentals, but there is callback pressure on the market. However, the expectation that the off - season in 26Q1 will not be weak provides support for prices. It is recommended to wait for the price to fall and stabilize before opportunistically buying LC2605 or more distant - month contracts at low prices [51][52] Summary by Directory 01 Hot Event Review - Recent Rising Drivers - Strong Real - World Fundamentals: Since September, lithium carbonate has entered a seasonal peak season, with a gradually emerging supply - demand gap. After the National Day holiday in October, the impact of mining - end disturbances decreased, and lithium prices started to rise. The release of a key report on the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in early November accelerated the expected resumption of production. Even if Jianxiaowo resumes production, the full - production increment will not change the supply - demand shortage in November. The market has shifted to trading based on strong real - world fundamentals. From January to October 2025, there were fluctuations in the supply and demand of lithium carbonate, and there were supply shortages in multiple months [9][11] - Recent Rising Drivers - Transformation of 26E Weak Expectation into Strong Expectation and Resonance in Stock - Futures Linkage: The equity market has an optimistic expectation for the 2026E energy - storage demand, and the lithium - battery sector has risen first. Since November 5th, the incremental capital inflow has driven the increase in positions and prices of lithium carbonate. The precipitation funds of the lithium carbonate variety have increased from 14.4 billion yuan to a peak of 26.3 billion yuan, an increase of + 82.6%, and the price of LC2601 has increased from 79,000 yuan on November 5th to a high of 102,000 yuan, an increase of + 29.1% [12][14] - Differences: Under the strong 2026E expectation, there are differences in lithium price increases during the off - season in 26Q1, while the peak season in 26H2 has stronger certainty. The 01 - 05 spread has weakened significantly, and the distant - month LC2605 has become the main contract. The demand for new - energy vehicles in 26Q1 is expected to decline month - on - month, so there are differences in the rise of LC2601 lithium prices, while LC2605 is not affected by the Q1 demand decline [15] 02 Fundamental Situation and Operation Suggestions - Supply: In October, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 57,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 2%, and it is expected to be 57,500 tons in November, a month - on - month increase of + 1%. It is expected that the production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite will continue to decline month - on - month in November [20] - Demand: In November, the expected production of various lithium - related products has different trends. For example, the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to reach 410,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 4.0%; the production of ternary materials is expected to be 85,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 1.4%; the production of cobalt - acid lithium is expected to rise to 13,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 3.4%; the production of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to rise to 26,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 3.7%, while the production of manganese - acid lithium is expected to be 12,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 3.6% [22][25] - Terminal Demand: In October, the production of power and energy - storage batteries was 170.6GWh, a month - on - month increase of + 12.8%; the installed capacity of power batteries was 84.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of + 10.7%; the production of domestic new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.772 million, a month - on - month increase of + 9.6%, and the sales volume was 1.715 million, a month - on - month increase of + 6.9%. The energy - storage demand remains high, but is restricted by the slowdown in capacity growth. Overseas energy - storage markets maintain high prosperity [32][46] - Inventory: Last week, the sample inventory was 118,400 tons, with a de - stocking of 2,052 tons, and the de - stocking speed slowed down. The warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased to 26,848 lots, with a de - stocking of 322 lots, and the inventory days of lithium carbonate decreased to 26.8 days [49] - Strategy: The market still has room for correction, but the strong real - world situation combined with the expectation that the 26Q1 off - season will not be weak provides support for prices. It is recommended to wait for the price to fall and stabilize before opportunistically buying LC2605 or more distant - month contracts at low prices [51][52]
26E弱预期转为强预期，股期联动共振上涨：碳酸锂专题之市场观察
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-11-27 02:00