白糖：关注新糖报价

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of the sugar market, including price data, macro and industry news, and production and consumption forecasts for both domestic and international markets. It suggests paying attention to China's syrup and premix import policy changes and Guangxi's new sugar quotes [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price Data: The raw sugar price is 15.14 cents/pound, up 0.23; the mainstream spot price is 5,640 yuan/ton, down 10; the futures main contract price is 5,379 yuan/ton, down 8. The 15 spread is 70 yuan/ton, up 8; the 59 spread is -15 yuan/ton, down 4; the mainstream spot basis is 261 yuan/ton, down 2 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Policy and Quotes: Pay attention to China's syrup and premix import policy changes and Guangxi's new sugar quotes. The 25/26 sugar export quota in India is 1.5 million tons. Brazil's sugar production in the first half of October increased by 1% year-on-year, and its export in October was 4.2 million tons, up 13% year-on-year. China imported 750,000 tons of sugar (+210,000 tons) and 120,000 tons of syrup and premix (-110,000 tons) in October [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - Production and Consumption Forecast: CAOC expects China's sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of September in the 24/25 season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar (+1.2 million tons), sold 10.48 million tons (+870,000 tons), with a cumulative sales rate of 93.9% (down 2.6 percentage points). As of the end of October in the 25/26 season, China had imported 750,000 tons of sugar (+210,000 tons). The Guangxi Sugar Association expects Guangxi's sugar production to be around 6.7 million tons with a lower sugar yield and unchanged sugarcane purchase price, and the Yunnan Sugar Association expects Yunnan's production to be around 2.6 million tons [2]. 3.4 International Market - Supply and Demand Forecast: ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 season (previously a shortage of 230,000 tons) and a shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of November 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 1.97 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 38.09 million tons (+610,000 tons) and a cumulative MIX of 51.97%, up 3.38 percentage points year - on - year. ISMA/NFCSF expects India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 34.35 million tons (previously 34.9 million tons), with 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].