甲醇：短期反弹格局延续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, methanol price rebounds from a low valuation due to Iranian methanol plants' gas - limit shutdowns and short - covering caused by concentrated short positions. Medium - term, the methanol fundamentals still face pressure, and future focus should be on port inventory and Iranian plant operations [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, on November 26, 2025, the closing price of methanol's main 01 contract was 2,094 yuan/ton, up 27 from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,089 yuan/ton, up 19; the trading volume was 1,611,623 lots; the open interest was 1,154,690 lots, down 45,683; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,800 tons, up 1,400; the trading volume was 3,366,024 ten - thousand yuan, up 725,702 ten - thousand yuan. The basis was - 6, up 1, and the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 107, up 14 [1] - In the spot market, on November 26, 2025, the price in Inner Mongolia was 1,970 yuan/ton, up 5; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,940 yuan/ton, up 5; the price in Shandong was 2,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2052.81, up 7.14. Among them, the Taicang spot price was 2088, up 28, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1990, up 2.5. Thirteen out of 20 monitored cities saw price increases ranging from 2.5 to 36 yuan/ton. The futures market was in high - level narrow - range fluctuations, with general spot negotiations and mainly far - month futures - cash transactions. The spot market remained active, but market optimism weakened due to expectations of plant restarts and incoming cargoes. Downstream demand was rational, and high - level inventories from previous low - price purchases provided limited support [3] - As of November 26, 2025, China's methanol port inventory was 136.35 million tons, down 11.58 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.83%. The overall unloading of foreign vessels was lower than expected, with only 15.20 million tons of visible unloading. Supported by reverse flow, Jiangsu's riverside warehouses had good pick - up, and the load of some major downstream enterprises increased slightly; Zhejiang's demand was stable. The inventory in South China ports continued to decline. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic cargoes arrived, and the pick - up from major warehouses was stable. In Fujian, with no incoming vessels, the inventory decreased due to stable consumption [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The methanol trend intensity was 1, indicating a relatively weak positive trend [5]