Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Financial Derivatives: Stock index futures are expected to remain volatile, with leading stocks' attempts to rise making large - cap indexes perform strongly. Treasury bond futures may rebound in the short - term [17][22]. - Agricultural Products: Protein meal prices are generally supported, while sugar shows different trends internationally and domestically. The oil and fat sector continues to oscillate, and various agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [24][27][33]. - Black Metals: Steel prices oscillate within a range, and the double - coking market sentiment is weak. Iron ore should be treated with a bearish mindset, and ferroalloys oscillate at the bottom [9]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Precious metals maintain a strong trend, and base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc have different price trends affected by factors like interest - rate cut expectations and supply - demand [11][12]. - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil prices have rebounded after touching the bottom, and various chemical products have their own price trends based on supply - demand and other factors [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: On Wednesday, the market rebounded and then fell back. Indexes showed differentiation, and trading volume and open interest decreased. It is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see, conduct IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buy option strategy [17][19][21]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures fell sharply. The sharp adjustment may be due to rumors of new public - fund regulations. In the short - term, it is recommended to moderately bet on the oversold rebound and go long at low positions [22]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes rose. In the international market, the supply of soybeans is abundant, and domestic soybean meal has price support. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions in soybean and rapeseed meal [25][26]. - Sugar: International sugar prices continued to rise, and domestic sugar prices oscillated within a range. It is recommended to build long positions at low positions in the short - term and conduct long January and short May arbitrage [28][31][32]. - Oil and Fat Sector: The Malaysian palm oil has an expected increase in production and weak exports in November. Palm oil oscillates weakly, and soybean oil follows the overall trend. It is recommended to conduct short - term band operations or wait and see [34][35]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The spot is strong, and the futures oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn on dips, wait and see for the 01 - month corn, and wait for dips for the 05 - and 07 - month corn [36][38]. - Pigs: The pressure of pig slaughter is still high, and it is recommended to wait and see and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [39][40]. - Peanuts: Peanut spot prices rose, and the futures rose significantly. It is recommended to short the 01 - month peanut lightly at high positions and conduct 15 - month peanut reverse arbitrage [41][42]. - Eggs: Egg demand is average, and prices are mainly stable. It is recommended to build long positions in the January contract at low positions [44][46][47]. - Apples: Apple demand is average, and prices are mainly stable. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50][51]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The fundamentals have few contradictions, and cotton prices mainly oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [53][54]. Black Metals - Steel: Steel prices oscillate within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot - metal production. It is recommended to maintain the oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures [56][57]. - Double - Coking: The market sentiment is still weak, and it is recommended to gradually take profits on short positions and continue to hold the 1/5 coking coal reverse arbitrage [58][59]. - Iron Ore: It should be treated with a bearish mindset, and it is recommended to be bearish at high positions [60][61][63]. - Ferroalloys: Prices oscillate at the bottom under the trend of production reduction. It is recommended to expect bottom - oscillating and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [64][65]. Non - ferrous Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver maintain a strong trend. It is recommended to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average and buy out - of - the - money call options [67][68][70]. - Copper: Copper prices are supported by the increasing expectation of US interest - rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton [71][72][74]. - Alumina: Substantial production cuts have not been realized. It is recommended to expect the price to be weak and wait and see [75][76]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Aluminum prices rise with the external market. It is recommended to oscillate strongly with the external market and pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China [77][78][79]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It runs strongly with aluminum prices. It is recommended to run strongly with aluminum prices and wait and see [80][82][83]. - Zinc: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to hold profitable long positions and be vigilant about the impact of overseas funds [84][86]. - Lead: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous profitable short positions and pay attention to the capital flow [87][88][89]. - Nickel: Production cuts stimulate the rebound of nickel prices, but inventory suppresses the height. It is recommended to be a short - position configuration [90][93]. - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and it follows the raw - material rebound. It is recommended to be a short - position configuration and sell out - of - the - money call options [91][94]. - Industrial Silicon: It oscillates within a range, and long positions should be held at this price. It is recommended to hold long positions, conduct Si2601, Si2602 cash - and - carry arbitrage, and sell put options [95][97]. - Polysilicon: It is strong in the short - term. It is recommended to try shorting after the price rises again and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [98]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical uncertainties still exist, and oil prices have rebounded after touching the bottom [16]. - Other Chemical Products: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as asphalt oscillating narrowly, fuel oil with different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur, etc. [16].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251127
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-27 01:56