工业硅：偏强震荡为主，多晶硅：关注月间价差变动

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to mainly experience a moderately strong and volatile trend [1]. - For polysilicon, attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly spread [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For industrial silicon, the Si2601 closing price was 9,020 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan compared to T - 1, -370 yuan compared to T - 5, and 55 yuan compared to T - 22. The Si2601 trading volume was 369,225 lots, and the open interest was 260,529 lots. For polysilicon, the PS2601 closing price was 55,895 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,165 yuan compared to T - 1 and 1,270 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - Basis: The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +480 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was -3,895 yuan/ton [2]. - Price: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,900 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,250 yuan/ton [2]. - Profit: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) was -2,249.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises was 7.7 yuan/kg [2]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 548,000 tons, and the polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 271,000 tons [2]. - Raw Material Cost: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore was 320 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang washed coking coal was 1,475 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On November 22, the main structure of the first - phase waste heat power generation project of the Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project, undertaken by the Fourth Branch, was successfully capped. This project adheres to the concept of "environmental protection first, energy - saving and high - efficiency" and uses innovative technologies to recycle high - temperature flue gas in the industrial silicon smelting process, realizing pollution control and improving energy utilization efficiency [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].