棉花：关注现货基差走势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the cotton market, presenting its basic data, macro - and industry - related news, and trends. It shows that the cotton market is in a state of relatively stable price and general trading volume, affected by factors such as downstream demand and international market trends [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: CF2601 closed at 13,625 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.15% daily increase and 13,645 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.15% increase. CY2601 closed at 20,070 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.02% daily increase and 20,090 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.10% increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 284,007 lots, a decrease of 100,383 lots from the previous day, and the position was 954,257 lots, a decrease of 6,999 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 11,950 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 14,763 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. ICE US cotton 3 closed at 64.61 cents/pound with a 0.59% increase [1]. - Spot: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,536 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,533 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 14,951 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 14,836 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan from the previous day. The 3128B index was 14,882 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 72.21 cents/pound, an increase of 0.28% [1]. - Spread: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 remained unchanged at 910 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic cotton spot: Spot trading remained stable, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid purchases and having a low willingness to buy. The spot fixed - price quotes and sales basis remained stable. The basis quotes for 2025/26 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3 were mostly at CF01+1400 - 1600 for inland self - pick - up. The basis quotes for 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 were mostly at CF01+1050 and above [2]. - Domestic cotton textile enterprises: The price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable overall, and the market trading atmosphere did not improve significantly. High - count pure - cotton yarn (including combed) had relatively good sales. Large - scale textile enterprises slightly increased the quotes of pure - cotton yarn 32 and 40 by 100 yuan/ton, but the downstream acceptance was generally low. The lack of new terminal orders suppressed the increase in yarn prices [2]. - US cotton: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures continued to rebound due to the rising expectation of interest rate cuts in the US [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].