市场扰动不断，板块表现分化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The construction industry is in the off - season, with limited bright spots in the fundamentals of the black building materials sector, and prices are under pressure. However, with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, there may be positive macro and policy news, and attention should be paid to potential phased upward opportunities driven by improved macro sentiment [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, with reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil and increased shipments from non - mainstream regions. Port inventories decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis. Iron water is expected to continue a slight downward trend, but there is still an expectation for iron ore restocking demand, and iron ore prices are firm. Scrap steel supply increases while demand remains stable, with limited price decline space, and prices are expected to oscillate [4] Carbon Element - After profit restoration and environmental protection relaxation, coke supply has stabilized. In the short term, steel mills' rigid demand support remains, but the cost support for spot goods continues to weaken, and the expectation of price cuts in the market is rising. Coke futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal. Domestic coking coal supply remains low, with no obvious weakening in fundamentals. After the spot price correction, there is still an expectation for downstream winter restocking. The near - term contracts of coking coal futures are suppressed by delivery, while the far - term contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [4] Alloys - Manganese silicon has cost support, but the market supply - demand is loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level around the cost. Silicon iron also has cost support, but supply - demand is also loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level around the cost [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass supply has potential disruptions, but high inventory restricts price increases. If there is no further cold - repair by the end of the year, prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are near the cost, with obvious bottom support, but the oversupply situation restricts price increases. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will continue to decline [7] Specific Product Analysis - Steel: In the off - season, fundamentals are lackluster, and the futures market is under pressure. Spot market trading is weak. Steel mills' profit margins continue to decline, and production is expected to decrease. Construction site funds are in short supply, and demand is weakening. Although inventory is decreasing, it is still higher than the same period last year. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [9] - Iron Ore: Iron water production is decreasing, but ore prices are still resilient. Overseas mine shipments have decreased, and port arrivals have increased. Iron water is expected to continue a slight downward trend, but there is an expectation for restocking demand. Ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [9] - Scrap Steel: The profit of electric furnaces has improved, and daily consumption has slightly increased. Supply has increased slightly, demand is stable, and prices are expected to oscillate [11] - Coke: Costs are continuously decreasing, and the expectation of price cuts is strong. Supply has stabilized after profit restoration and environmental protection relaxation, and inventory is decreasing. However, the cost support for spot goods is weakening, and the market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12] - Coking Coal: Coal mines continue to accumulate inventory, and pressure on the futures market remains. Domestic supply remains low, and there is an expectation for downstream restocking after the price correction. The near - term contracts are expected to oscillate, and the far - term contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [13] - Glass: The uncertainty of cold - repair remains, and the improvement of actual supply - demand is limited. Supply is expected to decrease, but high inventory restricts price increases. If there is no further cold - repair by the end of the year, prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices may rise [14] - Soda Ash: Production remains flat on a month - on - month basis, and spot trading is weak. Prices are near the cost, with obvious bottom support, but the oversupply situation restricts price increases. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will continue to decline [14] - Manganese Silicon: The inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and the futures market oscillates at a low level. Cost support remains, but the market supply - demand is loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [16] - Silicon Iron: Market confidence is insufficient, and futures prices are running weakly. Cost support is strong, but supply - demand is loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [17]