能源化策略：原油横盘整理，甲醇港??幅去库期价攀升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weaker and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [3]. - For crude oil, if the geopolitical support gradually weakens, it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [8][9]. - For other products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., they are mostly in a state of volatile trends, with specific outlooks varying according to their respective supply - demand and cost factors [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - View: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. If geopolitical support weakens, it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [8][9]. - Market News: The number of active oil rigs in the US decreased significantly. US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week of November 21, 2025. Trump loosened the deadline for the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the Ukrainian side denied agreeing to the US peace plan [8]. - Main Logic: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue continuously disturbs the geopolitical premium of crude oil. The increase in net imports led to an increase in crude oil inventory. The overall supply - surplus situation still exerts pressure on inventory accumulation [8][9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - View: It oscillates around the key level of 3000 [10]. - Main Logic: OPEC+ is expected to increase production in December. The Venezuelan raw material supply may be disrupted. The futures pricing returns to the Shandong spot, and the spot price in Shandong has stabilized, supporting the futures price. However, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still large [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: The futures price is in a weak and volatile state [3]. - Main Logic: OPEC+ is expected to increase production in December. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening. The refinery processing demand is weak, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: The futures price is in a weak and volatile state [3]. - Main Logic: It follows the decline of refined oil products. Although it is supported by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, the overall demand is facing headwinds such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [13]. 3.1.5 Methanol - View: The production suspension progresses rapidly, and the futures price rises again [3]. - Main Logic: The Chinese methanol port inventory decreased. The Iranian device shutdown progressed rapidly. The domestic market was affected by multiple positive factors such as improved market sentiment, reduced port arbitrage, increased olefin external procurement demand, and tightened supply [31]. 3.1.6 Urea - View: The inventory significantly decreased, and the bullish sentiment is strong [3]. - Main Logic: Although the supply is at a high level and the demand is weak, the inventory decreased significantly, which promoted the futures price to rise slightly [32]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - View: The price center is mainly adjusted in a wide range. Pay attention to the dynamics of oil - based devices [3]. - Main Logic: Currently, there is no further positive support on the supply - demand side. Some domestic coal - based devices are about to restart, but the downstream polyester demand still provides support [24][25]. 3.1.8 PX - View: The cost performance is average, and the efficiency is maintained under a good supply - demand pattern [3]. - Main Logic: International oil prices are oscillating weakly, and the cost support for PX is general. The downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and the peak season, and the polyester segment provides support for PX [16]. 3.1.9 PTA - View: The basis is strong, and the profit is slightly repaired [3]. - Main Logic: International oil prices are generally stable, and PX prices are relatively firm. The supply - demand of PTA has improved, and the downstream polyester load remains high. There is a possibility of phased inventory reduction in November - December [16][17]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - View: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it passively follows the upstream [3]. - Main Logic: The upstream polyester cost fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The short - fiber price follows the cost and oscillates [27][28]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - View: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is in a stalemate [3]. - Main Logic: The upstream cost has a certain support for the polyester bottle - chip price, but the trading atmosphere has declined after the price increase, and the processing fee fluctuates in a narrow range [29]. 3.1.12 Propylene - View: The spot is strong, and PL oscillates [3]. - Main Logic: The supply restart is delayed, the overall supply is tight, the enterprise inventory is controllable, and the downstream follow - up is active [37]. 3.1.13 PP - View: The fundamental pressure still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in maintenance [3]. - Main Logic: Oil prices are oscillating and falling. The fundamental support for PP is limited, the production release pressure is large, and the inventory in the middle reaches is at a high level. The focus is on the changes in maintenance [36]. 3.1.14 Plastic - View: Oil prices decline, the maintenance support is limited, and it oscillates weakly [3]. - Main Logic: Oil prices are in a weak and volatile state. The fundamental support for plastics is limited, the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [34][35]. 3.1.15 Styrene - View: The narrative of blending for oil fades, and it returns to oscillation [3]. - Main Logic: The driving force of blending for oil is questionable, and after the premium is squeezed out, the downward space is limited. The supply - demand contradiction in December - January is not significant [22]. 3.1.16 PVC - View: High inventory suppresses, and PVC may anchor production reduction [3]. - Main Logic: The macro - level policies in December may affect market expectations. At the micro - level, the high inventory of PVC is difficult to reduce, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production reduction [38]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - View: It operates in a weak supply - demand and low - valuation state with oscillation [3]. - Main Logic: At the macro - level, pay attention to the influence of the Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest - rate decision in December. At the micro - level, the supply - demand of caustic soda is expected to be poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can promote upstream production reduction [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Data on inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PP, etc. are provided, showing their latest values and changes [41]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including their latest values and changes [42]. - Inter - variety Spreads: Data on inter - variety spreads, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, along with their latest values and changes [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content other than the product names (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) is provided for detailed analysis. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed slight increases, while the PPI commodity index decreased slightly [285]. - Sector Index: The energy index showed a decline, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a 5 - day decline of 2.23%, a 1 - month decline of 4.55%, and a year - to - date decline of 9.17% [286].