宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025年11月27日）-20251127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" due to rising interest - rate cut expectations and the easing situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [1]. - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" because of macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - The core logic is that gold has been oscillating at a high level. The market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut has significantly increased, with the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December rising from about 30% - 40% a week ago to over 80%, causing the dollar index to weaken and the gold price to rise. Meanwhile, news of progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks has reduced gold's safe - haven appeal. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resistance at the $4200 level for New York gold and the 950 - yuan level in the domestic market [3]. Copper - Yesterday, after the Asian session, LME copper rose to the $11,000 level and then pulled back. At night, SHFE copper oscillated around the 87,000 - yuan level with a slight increase in open interest. Industrially, rising overseas inventories put pressure on the copper price, while the decline in domestic electrolytic copper inventories provides support. With rising interest - rate cut expectations, capital attention has increased, and the copper price is expected to remain strong. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the $11,000 level for LME copper [4].