Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The report's core view: The short - term view of Treasury bond futures is mainly for shock consolidation. In the short term, the possibility of the policy interest rate remaining unchanged is high, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures in the first ten - day period is insufficient. However, economic data such as consumption and investment in October have weakened, and the future monetary policy environment is expected to be relatively loose. Currently, attention should be paid to the statements on monetary policy in the December key meeting and changes in the market's expectations of the central bank's interest rate cuts [5] Group 3 Variety view reference - Financial futures stock index sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of easing still exists [1] Main variety price market driving logic - Financial futures stock index sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday. In the short term, the policy interest rate is likely to remain unchanged, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures in the first ten - day period is insufficient. But the economic data in October has weakened, and the future monetary policy environment is expected to be loose to maintain the stability of macro - aggregate demand, so there is still support for Treasury bond futures. Currently, attention should be paid to the statements on monetary policy in the December key meeting and changes in the market's expectations of the central bank's interest rate cuts [5]
宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年11月27日）-20251127
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-27 01:59