中泰期货晨会纪要-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic outlook is mixed, with most Fed districts reporting flat economic activity, some facing a risk of slowdown, and others showing slight growth or decline [8]. - The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to long - term [11][13]. - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations [11]. - In the agricultural sector, different products have different trends, such as cotton in low - level oscillations, sugar under supply pressure, and eggs with high inventory and limited upside potential [26][28][29]. - In the energy and chemical industry, oil prices are in a long - term downward trend, and various products' prices follow different factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand relationships [37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - information - China and the EU discussed semiconductor and other economic and trade issues, aiming to restore the semiconductor supply chain [6]. - Vanke faced a "double - kill" in stocks and bonds, and a bond展期 meeting will be held [6]. - Six departments issued a plan to boost consumer goods consumption, targeting specific consumption areas by 2027 [6]. - The Chinese non - ferrous metals association opposed zero or negative processing fees in copper smelting and managed copper smelting capacity [7]. - Treasury companies that hoarded cryptocurrencies suffered a "double - kill" in stock and coin prices [7]. - NVIDIA denied accounting fraud accusations [7]. - The Fed's economic activity was mostly flat, with some areas showing decline or growth, and the risk of slowdown increased [8]. - US economic data showed mixed results, including changes in jobless claims, durable goods orders [8][9]. - Japan's central bank may raise interest rates [8]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market had mixed performance, with military stocks falling and some concepts rising. Vanke's situation affected the market [10]. Treasury Futures - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Although there were sharp fluctuations, the short - term nature was high, considering factors like capital and fundamentals [11]. Steel and Ore - Short - term: expected to be volatile; Medium - to long - term: bearish. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for some plate products is okay. Supply may decline, and inventory is relatively high. Valuation shows that steel prices are likely to be weak [11][12][13]. Agriculture Cotton - Under the influence of large supply pressure and weak demand, it is in low - level oscillations, with high costs providing some support [26]. Sugar - Facing supply pressure, the price is under downward pressure, but cost provides a limit. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Eggs - The near - month futures contracts are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds with caution. High inventory and weak consumption are the main factors, but there are positive expectations for the long - term [29][30]. Apples - Expected to be slightly bullish. The acquisition season has ended, and the market is now in the outbound stage. Prices are stable, and inventory and consumption need attention [31]. Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch," and there may be a correction in the spot price [33]. Red Dates - Temporarily wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price is weak [34]. Pigs - In the short - term, supply pressure increases, and the price is weak. In the long - term, the decline in the number of sows is positive for prices [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In a long - term downward trend, it is advisable to short on rallies. Geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations affect the price [37]. Fuel Oil - The price fluctuates with the oil price. Supply is loose, and demand is flat. Geopolitical and macro factors are the main drivers [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile due to large supply and weak demand, but production losses may provide some support [40]. Rubber - The price difference between ru and nr may widen. Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather and raw material supply [41]. Synthetic Rubber - The short - term price is weak. It is advisable to hold short - call strategies or short on rallies [42]. Methanol - Near - month contracts: temporarily weak and volatile; Far - month contracts: turn to a volatile trend. Pay attention to inventory and import arrivals [43][44]. Caustic Soda - Keep a volatile mindset. The spot price is weakening, and the futures price is controlled by bears [45]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is adjusting strongly due to improved sentiment and supply - demand structure. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The short - term bullish factors are fully realized, and the price may turn weak. It is affected by supply, demand, and oil price trends [48]. Paper Pulp - Enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, and supply and demand are in a weak balance [49][50]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish. The spot price is under pressure, and the market is expected to be in a weak supply - demand balance [51]. Urea - The spot price may be bullish, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. Keep a wide - range volatile mindset [52]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by macro and inventory factors [18]. Lead - Hold short positions cautiously. The price is falling, and the inventory is decreasing. Import and export data show certain trends [19][20][21]. Lithium Carbonate - In wide - range fluctuations. The short - term is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and long - term optimistic expectations [22]. Industrial Silicon - Continue to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the adjustment space is limited [23]. Polysilicon - Continue to oscillate. Buy on dips. The supply - demand contradiction is weaker than the policy expectation contradiction [24].